Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 1750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week
Leader sits at 82% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 725K
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Above 750K
Spread
78pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$22K
liquid
Closes
May 24, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 7
Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week?: Above 750K
KXICEMANALBUMS-ICE26MAY21-750.0K
Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 725000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking week?: Above 725K
KXICEMANALBUMS-ICE26MAY21-725.0K
Analysis
This tracks whether Drake's three-song bundle will accumulate more than 1.75 million Album Equivalent Units during the May 15–21, 2026 tracking week. At 3 cents on Kalshi, the market assigns roughly 3% probability to this outcome. The steep decline from 79% at the 500K threshold to 3% at 1.75M reflects skepticism about sustained streaming volume at higher tiers. Drake's catalog reach and existing fanbase support moderate consumption (500–750K appears likely), but reaching superstar single-week peaks requires exceptional streaming concentration, chart dominance, or unexpected viral momentum. Official chart data releases on May 28–29, 2026 will definitively resolve this contract. Market liquidity is minimal ($2 daily volume), suggesting limited active trading around this specific threshold.
- ›Drake's historical weekly AEU peaks and whether this three-track bundle has demonstrated comparable appeal to his recent solo singles
- ›Streaming platform concentration: whether listeners are heavily cycling these three tracks versus distributing plays across Drake's broader catalog
- ›Chart performance and playlist placement during the May 15–21 week, particularly on Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube
- ›Competing releases and overall market saturation during this tracking week that would fragment listener attention
- ›Official Billboard/chart methodology confirmation of which streaming counts apply to this specific bundle versus individual track tracking
What moved the line
- May 20Above 750K↓19pp42→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Above 750K↓10pp23→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Above 725K↑10pp54→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 19Above 750K↓8pp50→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Above 750K↓6pp9→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (82% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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