2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 90% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Black Ball
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Project Hail Mary
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
467 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Digger
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DIG
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: You Can See Everything
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-YOU
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Sense and Sensibility
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-SEN
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Fjord
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-FJO
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Invite
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-INV
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Obsession
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-OBS
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-PRO
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DUN
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: I Play Rocky
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-IPL
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Josephine
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-JOS
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Club Kid
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-CLU
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Michael
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-MIC
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Tony
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-TON
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Being Heumann
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-BEI
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-BLA
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-ADV
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-YOUR
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Social Reckoning
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-SOC
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Minotaur
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-MIN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for which film will receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. Project Hail Mary is currently trading at 86%, suggesting traders view it as a strong contender for inclusion among the nominated films. The outcome depends primarily on how the film performs with critics and audiences between now and voting, along with competitive strength from other major releases like Dune: Part Three (74%) and The Invite (41%). The Academy's voting process occurs in early 2027, with nominations announced in January and winners decided at the March ceremony. Key uncertainties include post-production completion status, festival reception at major venues like Venice and Toronto, and how industry voters respond relative to competing films in the same year.
- ›Project Hail Mary's current production and post-production timeline relative to festival season deadlines
- ›Critical reception scores (Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic) and nominations at major precursor ceremonies (BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG Awards)
- ›Box office performance and audience reception, which influence Academy voter familiarity and enthusiasm
- ›Competitive field strength, particularly Dune: Part Three's perceived nomination chances and other major studio releases
- ›Academy nomination patterns—historical data on whether sci-fi films receive Best Picture nominations in the relevant voting categories
What moved the line
- Sep 19Digger↓13pp55→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17I Play Rocky↑12pp15→27¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Invite↑9pp49→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Black Ball↑8pp79→87¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Fjord↑6pp38→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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