2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations
Leader sits at 78% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Odyssey
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
Project Hail Mary
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$419
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
574 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Project Hail Mary
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-PRO
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Michael
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-MIC
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Obsession
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-OBS
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Disclosure Day
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DIS
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Wild Horse Nine
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-WIL
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Digger
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DIG
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Black Ball
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-BLA
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Dune: Part Three
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DUN
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Death of Robin Hood
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-DEA
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Cry to Heaven
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-CRY
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Club Kid
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-CLU
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Being Heumann
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-BEI
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Behemoth
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-BEH
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Artificial
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-ART
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: All of a Sudden
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-ALL
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Adventures of Cliff Booth
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-ADV
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: Minotaur
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-MIN
2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?: The Odyssey
KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-ODY
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that "The Odyssey" will receive a Best Picture nomination at the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. The film is currently priced at 86 cents, indicating strong confidence in its nomination, though this reflects traders' expectations rather than official confirmation. The nomination probability is driven by available reviews, festival reception, and historical patterns of similar films achieving Oscar recognition. Major factors include the film's critical performance during the current awards season, competition from other strong contenders like "Disclosure Day" (priced at 41 cents), and the Academy's tendency to nominate certain genres or storytelling styles. The key catalyst will be the official announcement of the 2027 Best Picture nominations, which typically occurs in late January 2027, resolving all uncertainty around this contract.
- ›The Odyssey's critical reception scores and festival performance compared to historical Oscar nominees
- ›Competition intensity from other nominated titles, particularly "Disclosure Day" and films trading below 10 cents
- ›The relative trading volume and price stability of The Odyssey contract ($90 in 24h volume) versus lower-conviction contracts like Michael and Narnia
- ›Academy voting patterns for films in The Odyssey's genre and production category over the past five years
- ›Any significant cast, director, or production company announcements between now and the January 2027 nomination announcement deadline
What moved the line
- May 30Minotaur↓9pp36→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 29Club Kid↑9pp22→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 29Michael↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Disclosure Day↑7pp35→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Obsession↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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