2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for which film will receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination in the 2027 Academy Awards ceremony. Project Hail Mary is currently trading at 86%, suggesting traders view it as a strong contender for inclusion among the nominated films. The outcome depends primarily on how the film performs with critics and audiences between now and voting, along with competitive strength from other major releases like Dune: Part Three (74%) and The Invite (41%). The Academy's voting process occurs in early 2027, with nominations announced in January and winners decided at the March ceremony. Key uncertainties include post-production completion status, festival reception at major venues like Venice and Toronto, and how industry voters respond relative to competing films in the same year.

• ›Project Hail Mary's current production and post-production timeline relative to festival season deadlines
• ›Critical reception scores (Rotten Tomatoes, Metacritic) and nominations at major precursor ceremonies (BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG Awards)
• ›Box office performance and audience reception, which influence Academy voter familiarity and enthusiasm
• ›Competitive field strength, particularly Dune: Part Three's perceived nomination chances and other major studio releases
• ›Academy nomination patterns—historical data on whether sci-fi films receive Best Picture nominations in the relevant voting categories

What moved the line

• Jul 17The Invite↓8pp42→34¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21The Social Reckoning↓8pp24→16¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21The Uprising↓7pp11→4¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 21The Adventures of Cliff Booth↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 19Elsinore↑5pp34→39¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds