Will The Great Divide have at least 190,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of The Great Divide
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
16 contracts
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
12 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Dinner Party have at least” vs “Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Dinner Party have at least
Will Dinner Party have at least 40,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 40,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-40000
Will Dinner Party have at least 30,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 30,000 albums
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-PURE-30000
Will Dinner Party have at least 30,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 30,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-30000
Will Dinner Party have at least 20,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 20,000 albums
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-PURE-20000
Will Dinner Party have at least 60,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 60,000 albums
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-PURE-60000
Will Dinner Party have at least 10,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 10,000 albums
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-PURE-10000
Will Dinner Party have at least 20,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 20,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-20000
Will Dinner Party have at least 10,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 10,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-10000
Will Dinner Party have at least 60,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 60,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-60000
Will Dinner Party have at least 90,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 90,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-90000
Will Dinner Party have at least 80,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 80,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-80000
Will Dinner Party have at least 70,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 70,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-70000
Will Dinner Party have at least 50,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of Dinner Party?: At least 50,000
KXALBUMSALES-DIN-ACT-50000
Cluster 2
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least 200,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love?: At least 200,000 albums
KXALBUMSALES-YOUS-PURE-200000
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least 250,000 Pure Album Sales on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love?: At least 250,000 albums
KXALBUMSALES-YOUS-PURE-250000
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love have at least 375,000 Activity (Combined Sales) on the Hits Daily Double Top 50 Chart for the week immediately following the wide release of you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love?: At least 375,000
KXALBUMSALES-YOUS-ACT-375000
Analysis
This market predicts whether 'The Great Divide' will achieve at least 190,000 pure album sales in its debut week on the Hits Daily Double chart following its wide release. The current 43% probability reflects uncertainty about the album's commercial performance. Key drivers include the artist's existing fanbase size and streaming momentum leading into release week, as well as the competitive landscape for new album releases during that period. The probability will be resolved the week after the wide release when Hits Daily Double publishes official sales data. Comparable recent releases and pre-order numbers would provide early indicators of whether this threshold is realistic. The market essentially weighs whether this represents a major commercial success or a more moderate performance relative to recent industry benchmarks.
- ›Pre-order volume and streaming performance in the weeks leading up to wide release
- ›Size and engagement level of the artist's existing fanbase based on prior release performance
- ›Chart competition and release timing—whether major competing albums launch the same week
- ›Historical sales data for similar artists or prior releases from this artist
- ›Promotional intensity and marketing spend allocated to the release week
What moved the line
- Jun 1At least 10,000↑43pp44→87¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3At least 375,000↑10pp49→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6At least 200,000 albums↑6pp57→63¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1At least 60,000↓5pp47→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2At least 60,000↓5pp42→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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