Independiente Medellín vs. Águilas Doradas Rionegro - More Markets: Águilas Doradas Rionegro (-1.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 10%, Polymarket at 31% — a 21pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
1 contract
Polymarket
31%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
21pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$98
20 contracts
Closes
May 1, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 10¢ · Polymarket 31¢ · 21pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (10¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (31¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Independiente” vs “CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Independiente
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: Draw (Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo)
0x072fcc…1671
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5)
0x559461…3557
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x13712f…25b6
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x65835d…d417
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x96cfcd…1513
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xd128a4…33d7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)
0x71f745…44e7
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x5735da…8821
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5)
0xd92e3c…28a1
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: Independiente Medellín
0xd1068f…937b
Independiente Medellín vs. CR Flamengo: CR Flamengo
0x8bc1be…b408
Cluster 2
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: Fluminense FC
0xdf1c56…de24
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd8a7d5…4976
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x9ff78c…90df
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)
0x4fe614…7662
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x735342…ad9d
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-2.5)
0xff496f…1114
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8b09a6…fc9e
Cluster 3
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner
Ind. Medellin vs Aguilas Doradas Rionegro Winner?: Aguilas Doradas Rionegro
KXDIMAYORGAME-26MAY03DIMADR-ADR
Cluster 4
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 4.5
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x379684…337b
What moved the line
- May 1Aguilas Doradas Rionegro↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.