SimpleFunctions
SportsWinner-take-all · 2 outcomes2 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses May 12, 2026 · 3d

Will there be over 22.5 total match fours

Leader sits at 46% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

46%

Over 32.5 fours

runner-up 45¢leader 46¢

Outcomes

2

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

Over 30.5 fours

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$367

thin orderbook

Closes

May 12, 2026

3 days

Venue

Kalshi

2 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayOver 32.5 fours: 46% (2 days, 2 points)Over 32.5 fours: 46% on 2026-05-08Over 30.5 fours: 24% on 2026-05-08
Over 32.5 fours46¢Over 30.5 fours24¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 8Over 32.5 fours22pp2446¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (46% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.