Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...
Leader sits at 17% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
June 30
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$147
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by
Analysis
This market reflects a 18% probability that Ramzan Kadyrov will no longer serve as Head of the Chechen Republic by a specified date. Kadyrov has led Chechnya since 2007 and maintains strong backing from Moscow, making his removal through formal political channels unlikely in the near term. The probability is driven primarily by geopolitical risks—including Kadyrov's controversial role in the Ukraine conflict and his sometimes tense relationship with the Kremlin leadership—balanced against his consolidated control of security forces and apparent continued support from Putin. The market price suggests traders view removal as a low-probability tail event, most likely materializing through major political upheaval in Russia or a significant shift in Moscow's strategic calculations. Key catalysts would include major changes in Russia's political structure, documented fractures in the Putin-Kadyrov relationship, or international developments that make his continued leadership strategically costly for Moscow.
- ›Kadyrov's security apparatus and personal militia provide substantial insulation from internal removal; he controls military and police forces in Chechnya with reported loyalty to him personally
- ›His public relationship with Putin has shown occasional tensions, particularly around military spending and Ukraine deployment decisions, creating potential fault lines if Moscow's priorities shift
- ›Kadyrov's international visibility and controversial statements make him a polarizing figure whose removal could affect Russia's regional stability narrative
- ›Russia's broader political system has shown limited precedent for removing regional leaders once consolidated; changes typically occur through succession planning rather than forced exit
- ›Any removal would likely require active decision-making from Moscow rather than internal Chechen processes, making it dependent on shifts in Kremlin calculations
What moved the line
- Apr 28December 31↑18pp15→33¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29December 31↓15pp33→18¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28June 30↑5pp9→14¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29June 30↓5pp14→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 2December 31↑4pp18→22¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (17% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.