Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kagoshima United FC
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
Ōita Trinita
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita
Analysis
This market reflects the probability that Kagoshima United FC will win their match against Ōita Trinita. The current leader's price of 50% indicates near-parity between the two outcomes, though the runner-up competitor at 37% suggests some disagreement in the market about relative likelihood. The prediction is driven by recent team form, head-to-head history, and home-field positioning in what appears to be a J2 League fixture. The match itself—scheduled for its kick-off date—will resolve the market definitively. Between now and that event, injury reports, lineup announcements, or betting market shifts on external bookmakers may signal updated expectations about either team's competitive standing.
- ›Current spread of 13 percentage points between leader (50%) and runner-up (37%) indicates material disagreement among market participants on the outcome
- ›Limited order flow ($298 24h volume on top contract) suggests low confidence or sparse trading activity relative to other sports prediction markets
- ›Market pricing reflects pre-match conditions; any official team news (injuries, suspensions, lineup changes) released before kick-off could shift probabilities materially
- ›Head-to-head historical performance and recent league standings for both clubs are primary inputs traders would evaluate
- ›Home-field advantage, if applicable to Kagoshima United in this fixture, typically influences winner-take-all match markets by 3-8 percentage points
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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