SimpleFunctions
20 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 2 min ago

Kagoshima United FC vs. Sagan Tosu

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

42%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

not bound

Polymarket

42%

20 contracts

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

20 contracts

Top contract

36¢

$0 · Polymarket

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 43% (3 days, 3 points)Aggregate: 43% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 3d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita” vs “Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita

11 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori

9 contracts$0

What moved the line

  • May 3Gainare Tottori8pp4032¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Ōita Trinita (-1.5)5pp3338¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Gainare Tottori (-1.5)4pp3337¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Sagan Tosu (-2.5)4pp3236¢ · Polymarket
  • May 3Ōita Trinita (-2.5)3pp3538¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.