Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1100000
Leader sits at 92% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 900k
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above 80k
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$10K
modest
Closes
Aug 4, 2027
407 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 120000?: Above 120k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-120000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 100000?: Above 100k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 90000?: Above 90k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-90000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 110000?: Above 110k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-110000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-07 Democratic primary be above 65000?: Above 65k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY7D26-65000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-07 Democratic primary be above 55000?: Above 55k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY7D26-55000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 60000?: Above 60k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-60000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 75000?: Above 75k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-75000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 65000?: Above 65k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-65000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-07 Democratic primary be above 70000?: Above 70k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY7D26-70000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-12 Democratic primary be above 80000?: Above 80k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY12D26-80000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-07 Democratic primary be above 60000?: Above 60k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY7D26-60000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-07 Democratic primary be above 75000?: Above 75k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY7D26-75000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 80000?: Above 80k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-80000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 85000?: Above 85k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-85000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 NY-13 Democratic primary be above 70000?: Above 70k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-NY13D26-70000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 900000?: Above 900k
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-900000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1200000?: Above 1.2M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1200000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1100000?: Above 1.1M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1000000?: Above 1.0M
KXPRIMARYTURNOUT-SENATEMID26-1000000
Analysis
This question asks whether Michigan's 2026 Democratic Senate primary will attract over 1.1 million total votes across all candidates. The 92% probability suggests high confidence that turnout will exceed this threshold. Primary turnout typically correlates with competitive races, voter enthusiasm for specific candidates, and whether concurrent elections draw voters to the polls. The Michigan Democratic primary will occur on August 4, 2026, when actual turnout will be recorded. Key factors influencing whether this threshold is reached include the competitiveness of the race (more candidates or closer polling could drive higher participation), whether a presidential primary or general election occurs on the same day, historical Michigan Democratic primary turnout patterns, and voter interest in the specific Senate candidates running. The actual vote count becomes definitive on election night and in the weeks following as provisional ballots are counted.
- ›Michigan's 2022 Democratic primary for Senate drew approximately 950,000-1,000,000 votes; reaching 1.1 million represents modest growth from recent precedent
- ›Whether a competitive Democratic presidential or other high-profile primary contest occurs simultaneously on August 4, 2026, significantly affects crossover voting and overall participation
- ›The number of competitive candidates entering the Democratic primary race and media coverage intensity will influence voter mobilization and turnout rates
- ›Historical data shows Michigan Democratic primary turnout ranges from 800,000 to 1.2 million depending on election cycle competitiveness and concurrent statewide races
- ›Provisional ballot counts and final certified results in Michigan typically finalize weeks after Election Day, potentially affecting the exact final vote total
What moved the line
- Jun 23Above 100k↓50pp76→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Above 100k↑42pp30→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 80k↓19pp36→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 110k↓18pp24→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 55k↑12pp52→64¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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