Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1100000
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 4, 2027
361 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary be above 1600000
Analysis
This contract estimates an 79% probability that Michigan's 2026 Democratic Senate primary will draw more than 1.1 million total votes. The high baseline reflects strong turnout expectations in a state with 5+ million registered Democrats, though the exact threshold depends on primary competitiveness and voter enthusiasm. Turnout typically ranges from 15–35% in midterm Democratic primaries; Michigan's 2022 midterm saw robust Democratic participation. The main uncertainty centers on how many candidates compete and whether the race attracts national attention, which would drive higher engagement. Primary turnout will be finalized once voting concludes in August 2026, providing the definitive outcome.
- ›Michigan has approximately 5.2 million registered Democratic voters; 1.1M votes represents roughly 21% participation, near historical midterm primary average
- ›2022 Michigan midterm primary generated approximately 1.2M Democratic votes; 2026 must match or exceed that despite different candidate dynamics
- ›Turnout correlates strongly with competitive races and candidate visibility; a crowded or nationally prominent Democratic primary would push totals upward
- ›August 2026 primary date is fixed; final vote totals become deterministic immediately after voting concludes
- ›Kalshi contracts show 93% confidence in exceeding 900k but only 79% for 1.1M threshold, indicating material uncertainty in the 900k–1.2M range
What moved the line
- Aug 2Above 1.6M↓10pp27→17¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 1.6M↓8pp10→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Above 1.6M↓6pp17→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Above 1.6M↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Above 1.6M↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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