A League Soccer
Leader sits at 49% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 48%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Winner: Melbourne City
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
48¢
Winner: Auckland FC
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 7, 2026
34 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
A League Soccer: Winner
A League Soccer: Winner: Newcastle Jets
0x1b9cfe…79eb
A League Soccer: Winner: Melbourne City
0xff68ba…e73a
A League Soccer: Winner: Sydney FC
0xa2214b…4c7e
A League Soccer: Winner: Adelaide United
0x3e6423…cb50
A League Soccer: Winner: Melbourne Victory
0x040fbc…1163
A League Soccer: Winner: Auckland FC
0x60c339…1b37
Analysis
Melbourne City is currently priced at 49% to win the A League Soccer championship, with five other contenders clustered tightly between 46-48%, indicating an exceptionally competitive field with no clear favorite. The market reflects relatively balanced expectations across the league, suggesting uncertainty about which team will ultimately prevail. The tight clustering of probabilities across multiple teams indicates that recent form, injury status, and fixture difficulty over the remainder of the season are likely driving marginal differences in perceived likelihood. The championship outcome will be determined by final-round results, with the title typically decided in the last weeks of the season when teams compete simultaneously or sequentially for playoff positioning. Current pricing suggests the market views Melbourne City as marginally ahead of rivals, but the 1-point gap to second place demonstrates minimal consensus around their superiority.
- ›All six contenders priced within 3 percentage points (46-49%), indicating no team with significant probabilistic advantage
- ›Zero trading volume across the displayed contracts over the past 24 hours, suggesting limited recent information flow or market participant conviction
- ›Melbourne City's 49% reflects single-digit lead over runner-ups despite being the formal league leader in odds, not a statistical tie
- ›The multi-outcome structure concentrates attention on final-season performance metrics—wins, goal differential, and head-to-head results between contenders
- ›Championship resolution depends on remaining fixture schedule difficulty and how teams perform in direct matchups against other contenders in this group
What moved the line
- Apr 27Winner: Melbourne City↓3pp48→45¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28Winner: Melbourne City↑3pp45→48¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.