Los Angeles FC vs. Colorado Rapids SC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 47%, Polymarket at 35% — a 12pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
9 contracts
Polymarket
35%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
12pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$9K
20 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$3K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 47¢ · Polymarket 35¢ · 12pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (35¢, 11 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (47¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets” vs “Will Los Angeles Thieves win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x087e96…4031
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-1.5)
0x52ecc5…1539
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)
0xe4ead2…9aca
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x361d08…fcba
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: New York City FC (-2.5)
0x749d60…214e
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
0x8cd527…d5dd
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xfb53dd…2bf6
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x3b1359…c2a6
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles Thieves win
Will Los Angeles Thieves win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 2 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-2-LAT
Will Los Angeles Thieves win map 1 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Los Angeles Thieves
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-1-LAT
Cluster 3
Will Nithya Raman
Will Nithya Raman and Karen Bass be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass
KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26JUN-NRAMKBAS
Will Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary?: Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt
KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26JUN-NRAMSPRA
Cluster 4
Will Vancouver Surge win
Will Vancouver Surge win the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODGAME-26MAY031500LATVAN-VAN
Will Vancouver Surge win map 2 in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge match?: Vancouver Surge
KXCODMAP-26MAY031500LATVAN-2-VAN
Cluster 5
CD Los Chankas vs. CD Garcilaso - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 6
Will Karen Bass and Spencer Pratt be the nominees in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary
Cluster 7
Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
What moved the line
- May 1Over 3.5 maps↑43pp10→53¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Over 3.5 maps↓23pp56→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt↑8pp13→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Nithya Raman vs. Karen Bass↓7pp58→51¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Nithya Raman vs. Spencer Pratt↑7pp28→35¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.