Will the minimum temperature be 64-65° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 45% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 26%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
69° to 70°
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
26¢
67° to 68°
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$416
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on May 9, 2026?: 73° to 74°
KXLOWTNOLA-26MAY09-B73.5
Will the minimum temperature be 67-68° on May 9, 2026?: 67° to 68°
KXLOWTNOLA-26MAY09-B67.5
Will the minimum temperature be 71-72° on May 9, 2026?: 71° to 72°
KXLOWTNOLA-26MAY09-B71.5
Will the minimum temperature be <67° on May 9, 2026?: 66° or below
KXLOWTNOLA-26MAY09-T67
Will the minimum temperature be 69-70° on May 9, 2026?: 69° to 70°
KXLOWTNOLA-26MAY09-B69.5
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.