Will the minimum temperature be 43-44° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 27% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
56° to 57°
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
60° to 61°
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be <56° on Jun 8, 2026?: 55° or below
KXLOWTDEN-26JUN08-T56
Will the minimum temperature be 56-57° on Jun 8, 2026?: 56° to 57°
KXLOWTDEN-26JUN08-B56.5
Will the minimum temperature be >63° on Jun 8, 2026?: 64° or above
KXLOWTDEN-26JUN08-T63
Will the minimum temperature be 60-61° on Jun 8, 2026?: 60° to 61°
KXLOWTDEN-26JUN08-B60.5
Will the minimum temperature be 62-63° on Jun 8, 2026?: 62° to 63°
KXLOWTDEN-26JUN08-B62.5
Will the minimum temperature be 58-59° on Jun 8, 2026?: 58° to 59°
KXLOWTDEN-26JUN08-B58.5
Recently closed in climate
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.