Will the minimum temperature be 64-65° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 33% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
68° to 69°
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
70° to 71°
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 66-67° on May 9, 2026?: 66° to 67°
KXLOWTAUS-26MAY09-B66.5
Will the minimum temperature be 68-69° on May 9, 2026?: 68° to 69°
KXLOWTAUS-26MAY09-B68.5
Will the minimum temperature be 70-71° on May 9, 2026?: 70° to 71°
KXLOWTAUS-26MAY09-B70.5
Will the minimum temperature be >71° on May 9, 2026?: 72° or above
KXLOWTAUS-26MAY09-T71
Will the minimum temperature be 64-65° on May 9, 2026?: 64° to 65°
KXLOWTAUS-26MAY09-B64.5
Will the minimum temperature be <64° on May 9, 2026?: 63° or below
KXLOWTAUS-26MAY09-T64
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In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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