Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$41K
17 contracts
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
A's vs San Francisco Winner
A's vs San Francisco Winner?: A's
KXMLBGAME-26JUN242145ATHSF-ATH
A's vs San Francisco Winner?: San Francisco
KXMLBGAME-26JUN242145ATHSF-SF
A's vs San Francisco Winner?: A's
KXMLBGAME-26JUN251545ATHSF-ATH
A's vs San Francisco Winner?: San Francisco
KXMLBGAME-26JUN251545ATHSF-SF
Cluster 2
Atlanta vs San Diego Winner
Cluster 3
Philadelphia vs Washington Winner
Cluster 4
Arizona vs St. Louis Winner
Cluster 5
Seattle vs Pittsburgh Winner
Cluster 6
Chicago C vs New York M Winner
Cluster 7
Kansas City vs Tampa Bay Winner
Cluster 8
New York Y vs Boston Winner
New York Y vs Boston Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26JUN251910NYYBOS-NYY
Analysis
This 50% probability reflects equal odds between Los Angeles D and San Francisco in their upcoming matchup. The even split suggests market participants see both teams as comparably matched, with no clear consensus favorite. Key drivers of this probability include recent team performance metrics, head-to-head historical records, and current injury reports or roster changes. The specific game date and final lineup announcements would likely shift this probability as more information becomes available. Any significant roster changes, coaching decisions, or updated performance data in the days leading up to the matchup could move the odds in either direction. Market participants are monitoring team form and tactical preparation as the contest approaches.
- ›Recent win-loss records and point differential for both teams over the last 10-15 games
- ›Head-to-head historical performance and outcomes from prior matchups between these teams
- ›Current injury status of key players and roster availability confirmed by official team announcements
- ›Trading volume and price movement on related prediction contracts showing how sentiment has shifted over time
- ›Team's performance in similar game contexts or against comparable opponents in recent weeks
What moved the line
- Jun 23New York Y↑24pp30→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23San Francisco↑17pp36→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Chicago C↑17pp30→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23New York M↑16pp32→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Pittsburgh↑13pp38→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 0d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 4d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 5d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 5d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.