Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$117K
20 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
5 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Los Angeles D vs San Diego Winner” vs “Houston vs Detroit Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Los Angeles D vs San Diego Winner
Cluster 2
Houston vs Detroit Winner
Cluster 3
Chicago C vs Milwaukee Winner
Cluster 4
Texas vs Toronto Winner
Cluster 5
New York Y vs Boston Winner
New York Y vs Boston Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26JUN261910NYYBOS-NYY
Cluster 6
Atlanta vs San Francisco Winner
Atlanta vs San Francisco Winner?: Atlanta
KXMLBGAME-26JUN262215ATLSF-ATL
Cluster 7
Philadelphia vs New York M Winner
Philadelphia vs New York M Winner?: Philadelphia
KXMLBGAME-26JUN261910PHINYM-PHI
Cluster 8
Kansas City vs Chicago WS Winner
Kansas City vs Chicago WS Winner?: Chicago WS
KXMLBGAME-26JUN261940KCCWS-CWS
Cluster 9
Washington vs Baltimore Winner
Washington vs Baltimore Winner?: Washington
KXMLBGAME-26JUN261905WSHBAL-WSH
Cluster 10
Seattle vs Cleveland Winner
Seattle vs Cleveland Winner?: Cleveland
KXMLBGAME-26JUN261910SEACLE-CLE
Cluster 11
A's vs Los Angeles A Winner
A's vs Los Angeles A Winner?: A's
KXMLBGAME-26JUN262138ATHLAA-ATH
Cluster 12
Miami vs St. Louis Winner
Miami vs St. Louis Winner?: Miami
KXMLBGAME-26JUN262015MIASTL-MIA
Cluster 13
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Winner
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Winner?: Cincinnati
KXMLBGAME-26JUN261840CINPIT-CIN
Cluster 14
Colorado vs Minnesota Winner
Colorado vs Minnesota Winner?: Minnesota
KXMLBGAME-26JUN262010COLMIN-MIN
Analysis
This 50% probability reflects equal odds between Los Angeles D and San Francisco in their upcoming matchup. The even split suggests market participants see both teams as comparably matched, with no clear consensus favorite. Key drivers of this probability include recent team performance metrics, head-to-head historical records, and current injury reports or roster changes. The specific game date and final lineup announcements would likely shift this probability as more information becomes available. Any significant roster changes, coaching decisions, or updated performance data in the days leading up to the matchup could move the odds in either direction. Market participants are monitoring team form and tactical preparation as the contest approaches.
- ›Recent win-loss records and point differential for both teams over the last 10-15 games
- ›Head-to-head historical performance and outcomes from prior matchups between these teams
- ›Current injury status of key players and roster availability confirmed by official team announcements
- ›Trading volume and price movement on related prediction contracts showing how sentiment has shifted over time
- ›Team's performance in similar game contexts or against comparable opponents in recent weeks
What moved the line
- Jun 24New York Y↑32pp16→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Philadelphia↑18pp31→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Texas↑18pp31→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Cleveland↑16pp31→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Detroit↑13pp37→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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