Los Angeles D vs San Francisco Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.3M
20 contracts
Top contract
68¢
$231K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Winner” vs “Toronto vs Minnesota Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Los Angeles D vs St. Louis Winner
Cluster 2
Toronto vs Minnesota Winner
Cluster 3
Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh Winner
Cluster 4
Milwaukee vs Washington Winner
Cluster 5
Philadelphia vs Miami Winner
Cluster 6
Chicago WS vs San Diego Winner
Cluster 7
Kansas City vs Seattle Winner
Cluster 8
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner
Baltimore vs New York Y Winner?: New York Y
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031335BALNYY-NYY
Cluster 9
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Winner
San Francisco vs Tampa Bay Winner?: Tampa Bay
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031340SFTB-TB
Cluster 10
Atlanta vs Colorado Winner
Atlanta vs Colorado Winner?: Atlanta
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031510ATLCOL-ATL
Cluster 11
Arizona vs Chicago C Winner
Arizona vs Chicago C Winner?: Chicago C
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031420AZCHC-CHC
Cluster 12
Cleveland vs A's Winner
Cleveland vs A's Winner?: Cleveland
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031605CLEATH-CLE
Cluster 13
Houston vs Boston Winner
Houston vs Boston Winner?: Boston
KXMLBGAME-26MAY031335HOUBOS-BOS
What moved the line
- May 1Tampa Bay↑20pp28→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 1San Diego↑15pp44→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Toronto↑14pp37→51¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Atlanta↑14pp45→59¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Minnesota↑8pp37→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.