Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets
Leader sits at 65% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
O/U 2.5
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-1.5)
0xc6b29b…917b
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd6d00c…a2e5
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xf9c843…8a5a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x68f5fb…ba0a
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xc26872…5101
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xda0ea1…f5e3
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-2.5)
0xf0472b…99af
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)
0xa5b295…370e
Montedio Yamagata vs. Thespa Gunma - More Markets: Thespa Gunma (-1.5)
0xa980d1…29b1
Analysis
This market reflects a lean toward Montedio Yamagata in a match against Thespa Gunma, with traders pricing the outcome at 51% based on available contracts on Polymarket. The probability sits notably above a pure coin flip, suggesting modest market confidence in Yamagata's chances relative to alternatives. The J-League context matters here: both teams operate in Japanese domestic competition, and current form, recent head-to-head records, and home-field advantage typically influence these spreads. The resolution will depend entirely on the match result when played. Key uncertainties stem from squad availability, recent injury reports, and how market participants weight offensive versus defensive strength in the league's typical playing patterns.
- ›Montedio Yamagata win probability is priced 17 percentage points above the runner-up outcome (51% vs. 34%), indicating moderate consensus rather than ambiguity
- ›Polymarket volume across five contracts totals low absolute liquidity ($265+ 24h range across listed pairs), potentially reducing confidence in price precision
- ›No stated match date in available data; resolution timeline directly impacts whether near-term form and injuries remain relevant to the probability
- ›Home-field advantage in J-League tends to shift win probabilities 5-10 percentage points in favored teams' direction, a factor baked into current pricing
- ›Head-to-head historical records between Yamagata and Gunma would explain persistence of 51% if the teams have played recently with consistent outcome patterns
What moved the line
- May 3Thespa Gunma (-1.5)↑4pp33→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Montedio Yamagata (-2.5)↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.