Will Zane Smith record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
18h ago
24h volume
$8K
16 contracts
Closes
Jun 1, 2026
28 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Carson Hocevar record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 2
Will Chase Elliott record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 3
Will Ty Gibbs record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 4
Will Kyle Busch record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 5
Will Chase Briscoe record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 6
Will Chris Buescher record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 7
Will Ross Chastain record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 8
Will Tyler Reddick record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 9
Will Daniel Suárez record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 10
Will Kyle Larson record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 11
Will Christopher Bell record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 12
Will Denny Hamlin record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 13
Will Noah Gragson record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 14
Will William Byron record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 15
Will Joey Logano record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Cluster 16
Will Josh Berry record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY
Analysis
This contract asks whether Zane Smith will record the fastest lap during the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY. At 9%, the probability reflects Smith's historical performance relative to other competitors in this specific event. The current level is driven by Smith's prior track record in fastest-lap competitions and his general competitiveness in NASCAR series racing. The contract resolves when the NASCAR Würth 400 main race concludes, at which point either Smith will have set the fastest lap or another driver will have. Competing fastest-lap probabilities for Carson Hocevar (16%) and Daniel Suárez (6%) suggest market participants view Hocevar as the marginal favorite, with Smith positioned as a mid-tier candidate among potential fastest-lap setters.
- ›Smith's historical fastest-lap frequency in NASCAR races compared to the 2026 field competing at this specific track
- ›The relative speed and setup optimization of Smith's vehicle during qualifying and practice sessions leading up to the race
- ›Track conditions on race day, including weather and track temperature, which affect lap times and tire performance across the field
- ›Pit strategy and fuel management decisions that may impact which drivers attempt fastest-lap runs late in the race
- ›Comparison of market-implied probabilities for other fastest-lap candidates (Hocevar at 16%, Suárez at 6%) indicating consensus about the competitive order
What moved the line
- May 2Kyle Larson↑36pp14→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Kyle Larson↓34pp50→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Carson Hocevar↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Tyler Reddick↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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