Will a team with below 3% odds win the #1 overall pick
Leader sits at 41% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 14% odds
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Between 9% and 13% odds
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 25, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a team
Will a team with at least 14% odds win the #1 overall pick?: At least 14% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-14-100
Will a team with below 3% odds win the #1 overall pick?: Below 3% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-0-3
Will a team with between 3% and 8% odds win the #1 overall pick?: Between 3% and 8% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-3-8
Will a team with between 9% and 13% odds win the #1 overall pick?: Between 9% and 13% odds
KXNBALOTTERYODDS-26-9-13
Analysis
This market estimates a 41% probability that the team receiving the #1 NBA draft pick in 2026 will have had below 3% odds to win it during the season. The NBA lottery determines draft order based on a weighted system favoring the worst-performing teams, but with randomization that occasionally elevates unexpected winners. The current probability reflects historical lottery outcomes where surprise winners (teams outside the typical top-3 finishers) have claimed the first pick. Key drivers include final regular-season standings, which determine each team's lottery odds, and the randomized draw itself, scheduled for May or June. A concentrated tank by multiple teams would lower this probability, while even distribution of poor records would increase it. The lottery drawing represents the single event that resolves this outcome.
- ›Historical frequency of below-3% lottery odds teams winning #1 pick in prior years (2003–2025 record)
- ›Number of NBA teams finishing with records that would generate sub-3% baseline odds in 2025–26 season
- ›Distribution of win totals among bottom-10 teams (more clustering = higher probability of outsider win)
- ›Scheduled NBA lottery draw date and final regular-season standings confirmation
- ›Whether any tanking teams converge on identical records, affecting odds distribution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.