NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion
Leader sits at 39% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 35%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2027 National Champion: Texas Longhorns
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
35¢
2027 National Champion: Ohio
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
267 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
0xd30028…e67b
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Florida Gators
0x3a41a0…964d
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: USC Trojans
0x458e8e…a2cf
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: LSU Tigers
0x3afea9…850f
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Miami Hurricanes
0x3bebcd…e390
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Oklahoma Sooners
0x8887cb…91e5
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
0xb5a3da…ac3d
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Texas Tech Red Raiders
0x2ad596…0553
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Georgia Bulldogs
0xd0d476…4759
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Indiana Hoosiers
0xa4f311…a4b8
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
0x7d24d0…6b5f
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Michigan Wolverines
0x95903b…a57f
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Mississippi Rebels
0x0fa5a7…5e8f
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Texas A&M Aggies
0xb8faaa…d910
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Oregon Ducks
0xa68349…0649
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion: Texas Longhorns
0x040a5b…0c5d
Analysis
Ohio State is currently the highest-priced contract for the 2027 NCAA Football National Champion at 32%, reflecting a roughly 1-in-3 chance according to prediction markets. This price reflects the Buckeyes' strong recent recruiting, returning offensive talent, and Big Ten conference strength, though they face competition from other blue-chip programs. The main factors influencing this probability are the development of the quarterback position, recruiting class rankings for the 2027 roster, and the evolution of the broader college football landscape following recent conference realignment. Uncertainty will gradually resolve through the 2026 season, where Ohio State's performance against top-tier opponents will significantly move the needle. The scheduled College Football Playoff semifinals and championship game in January 2027 will ultimately determine the outcome.
- ›Ohio State's QB situation and offensive line development heading into the 2026 season affects tournament viability more than historical tradition alone
- ›Comparative recruiting rankings and portal activity among top programs will shift market odds as the 2026 season approaches
- ›2026 regular season performance, particularly outcomes against ranked opponents, serves as the primary real-time signal for championship probability adjustment
- ›Injury history to key offensive and defensive players during 2026 will create live volatility in contract pricing
- ›Runner-up Notre Dame at 27% creates a 5-percentage-point gap that could close or widen based on program trajectory clarity by mid-2026
What moved the line
- May 22027 National Champion: Georgia Bulldogs↑7pp14→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 32027 National Champion: Oregon Ducks↑5pp20→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 22027 National Champion: Indiana Hoosiers↓5pp28→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 22027 National Champion: Oklahoma Sooners↓5pp24→19¢ · Polymarket
- May 32027 National Champion: Texas Longhorns↓4pp31→27¢ · Polymarket
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 15 min ago.