Top Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Apex
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
180
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$665
thin orderbook
Closes
May 5, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026
Analysis
This represents a 3% probability that a movie will rank as Netflix's most-watched globally on May 4, 2026. The low probability reflects that show content dominates Netflix's engagement metrics, with the top global ranking currently held by Man on Fire: Season 1 at 52¢—indicating strong viewer preference for episodic content over films on this date. Movie rankings are typically driven by new releases, viewing duration, and completion rates relative to available content. The resolution depends on Netflix's public viewership data for May 4, which would show definitively whether any movie surpassed all shows in global viewing time or engagement metrics.
- ›Man on Fire: Season 1 currently trades at 52¢ for top global Netflix show, suggesting shows substantially outpace movies in daily viewership
- ›No major film releases are evident in the contract volume data for May 4, 2026, limiting candidates that could occupy the top global position
- ›Movie rankings require sustained viewing duration to compete with multi-episode shows released on the same date
- ›Historical Netflix data shows shows consistently claim top rankings over movies when both release simultaneously
- ›Resolution depends on Netflix's official global viewing metrics published for May 4, 2026, which determine definitively whether any movie ranked first
What moved the line
- Apr 30Apex↑13pp77→90¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Apex↑5pp90→95¢ · Kalshi
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.