How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be
Leader sits at 89% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 25 minutes
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
At least 30 minutes
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$20
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
188 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 45 minutes
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-45
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 65 minutes
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-65
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 35 minutes
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-35
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 30 minutes
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-30
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 25 minutes
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-25
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least 40 minutes
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-40
Analysis
The 60% probability reflects market consensus that Drake's upcoming album 'Iceman' will meet a specific length threshold, though the exact threshold varies across contracts. The probability distribution shows traders view the album as likely to exceed 65 minutes (69¢) but remain uncertain whether it reaches 100 minutes (18¢), suggesting expected length around 70-85 minutes. Album length depends on Drake's creative decisions and studio output, influenced by factors like the number of tracks, average song duration, and any deluxe or extended editions. Resolution occurs when the album officially releases and streaming platforms or official sources confirm its total runtime. Market activity of $90-120 daily volume on the primary contracts indicates moderate trader interest in this metric.
- ›Official release date and announced tracklist will establish exact runtime; delays or format changes would shift probability
- ›Drake's typical album length pattern—recent albums range 45-90 minutes—anchors trader expectations around this historical baseline
- ›Presence or absence of bonus tracks, skits, or interludes significantly affects total duration and represents a key unknown variable
- ›Preliminary leaks or studio session reports could alter probability if they indicate unexpectedly long or short project length
- ›Contract pricing spread (18¢ to 95¢ across thresholds) reflects genuine disagreement about whether album will exceed 100 minutes versus staying under 75 minutes
What moved the line
- Jun 22At least 35 minutes↑73pp2→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21At least 35 minutes↓48pp50→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least 40 minutes↑40pp2→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21At least 40 minutes↓29pp31→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20At least 35 minutes↓20pp70→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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