SimpleFunctions
11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 106d·1pp · 4h

Will Drake release a new album?

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 11 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

28%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

28%

11 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

+1pp

4h ago

24h volume

$505

11 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

106 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 38% (25 days, 25 points)Aggregate: 38% on 2026-09-12
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 25d

Bracket families

11 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026

1 contract$505

Cluster 2

Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Billie Eilish release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Ice Spice release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Maroon 5 release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Migos release a new album in 2026

1 contract$0

What moved the line

  • Sep 10Post Malone34pp6531¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 11Post Malone34pp3165¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 10Ice Spice28pp4012¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 11Ice Spice15pp1227¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 12Ice Spice12pp2739¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in entertainment

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.