Will Drake release a new album?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+1pp
3h ago
24h volume
$97
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Aug 1, 2026?: Before August
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-AUG01-26
Cluster 2
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-TAY
Cluster 3
Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026
Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026?: Rihanna
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-RIH
Cluster 4
Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026
Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026?: PinkPantheress
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-PIN
Cluster 5
Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026
Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026?: Lola Young
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-LOL
Cluster 6
Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026
Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026?: Post Malone
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-POS
Cluster 7
Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026
Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026?: Dua Lipa
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-CUA
Cluster 8
Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026
Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SAB
Cluster 9
Will Ice Spice release a new album in 2026
Will Ice Spice release a new album in 2026?: Ice Spice
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-ICE
Cluster 10
Will Maroon 5 release a new album in 2026
Will Maroon 5 release a new album in 2026?: Maroon 5
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MARO
Cluster 11
Will Migos release a new album in 2026
Will Migos release a new album in 2026?: Migos
KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MIG
What moved the line
- Jul 20Ice Spice↓17pp45→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Ice Spice↑16pp28→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20PinkPantheress↓13pp49→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21PinkPantheress↑13pp36→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Lola Young↓7pp28→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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