#2 Global Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026
Leader sits at 9% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Apex
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
180
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$107
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: 180
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-180
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Apex
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-APE
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Minions: The Rise of Gru
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-MIN
#2 Global Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Thrash
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIEGLOBAL2-26MAY04-THR
What moved the line
- May 2Apex↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
More like this
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In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.