#2 US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026
Leader sits at 88% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 11%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Swapped
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
11¢
Untold: The Shooting at Hawt
Spread
77pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Roommates
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-ROO
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Apex
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-APE
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Swapped
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-SWA
#2 US Netflix Movie on May 4, 2026?: Untold: The Shooting at Hawthorne Hill
KXNETFLIXRANKMOVIERUNNERUP-26MAY04-UNT
What moved the line
- May 3Swapped↑40pp48→88¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Swapped↑39pp9→48¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Roommates↓10pp24→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Swapped↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Roommates↓6pp10→4¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.