Will Kayden McDonald be the 2nd Defensive Tackle drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$51K
20 contracts
Top contract
40¢
$13K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4” vs “Will Oklahoma City win 4”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-0 in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: CAR wins 4-0
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26PHICARR2-CAR40
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-1 in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: CAR wins 4-1
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26PHICARR2-CAR41
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-2 in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: CAR wins 4-2
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26PHICARR2-CAR42
Cluster 2
Will Oklahoma City win 4
Will Oklahoma City win 4-0 in the Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: OKC wins 4-0
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC40
Will Oklahoma City win 4-2 in the Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: OKC wins 4-2
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC42
Cluster 3
Will San Antonio win 4
Will San Antonio win 4-2 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-2
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS42
Will San Antonio win 4-0 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-0
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS40
Cluster 4
Will Derrick White be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Cluster 5
Will Victor Wembanyama be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Cluster 6
Will Cason Wallace be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Cluster 7
Will Rudy Gobert be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Will Rudy Gobert be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team?: Rudy Gobert
KXNBA2NDTEAMDEF-26-RGOB
Cluster 8
Will Dyson Daniels be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Will Dyson Daniels be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team?: Dyson Daniels
KXNBA2NDTEAMDEF-26-DDAN
Cluster 9
Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Will Chet Holmgren be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team?: Chet Holmgren
KXNBA2NDTEAMDEF-26-CHOL
Cluster 10
Will Draymond Green be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Cluster 11
Will Isaiah Stewart be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Will Isaiah Stewart be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team?: Isaiah Stewart
KXNBA2NDTEAMDEF-26-ISTE
Cluster 12
Will Donovan Clingan be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Cluster 13
Will OG Anunoby be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Will OG Anunoby be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team?: OG Anunoby
KXNBA2NDTEAMDEF-26-OANU
Cluster 14
Will Scottie Barnes be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Cluster 15
Will Luguentz Dort be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
Will Luguentz Dort be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team?: Luguentz Dort
KXNBA2NDTEAMDEF-26-LDOR
Cluster 16
Will Amen Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 2nd Team
What moved the line
- Apr 29OG Anunoby↓64pp66→2¢ · Kalshi
- May 3CAR wins 4-0↑13pp16→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 2CAR wins 4-2↑11pp8→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 2CAR wins 4-1↑9pp14→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 2CAR wins 4-0↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.