Will Emmett Johnson be the 2nd Running Back drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$77K
19 contracts
Top contract
40¢
$13K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Carolina Hurricanes” vs “Will Minnesota Wi”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Carolina Hurricanes
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-0 in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: CAR wins 4-0
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26PHICARR2-CAR40
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-1 in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: CAR wins 4-1
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26PHICARR2-CAR41
Will Carolina Hurricanes win 4-2 in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: CAR wins 4-2
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26PHICARR2-CAR42
Will Carolina Hurricanes cover -1.5 games in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: Carolina Hurricanes -1.5 games
KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26PHICARR2-CAR2
Will Carolina Hurricanes cover -2.5 games in the Philadelphia Flyers vs Carolina Hurricanes 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: Carolina Hurricanes -2.5 games
KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26PHICARR2-CAR3
Cluster 2
Will Minnesota Wi
Will Minnesota Wild win 4-3 in the Minnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: MIN wins 4-3
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26MINCOLR2-MIN43
Will Minnesota win 4-3 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: MIN wins 4-3
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-MIN43
Will Minnesota win 4-2 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: MIN wins 4-2
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-MIN42
Will Minnesota Wild win 4-2 in the Minnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: MIN wins 4-2
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26MINCOLR2-MIN42
Cluster 3
Will San Antonio win 4
Will San Antonio win 4-2 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-2
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS42
Will San Antonio win 4-0 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-0
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS40
Will San Antonio win 4-1 in the Minnesota vs San Antonio 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: SAS wins 4-1
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26MINSASR2-SAS41
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma City win 4
Will Oklahoma City win 4-0 in the Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: OKC wins 4-0
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC40
Will Oklahoma City win 4-2 in the Los Angeles L vs Oklahoma City 2nd Round series in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: OKC wins 4-2
KXNBASERIESSCORE-26LALOKCR2-OKC42
Cluster 5
Will Colorado Avalanche
Will Colorado Avalanche cover -2.5 games in the Minnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: Colorado Avalanche -2.5 games
KXNHLSERIESSPREAD-26MINCOLR2-COL3
Will Colorado Avalanche win 4-2 in the Minnesota Wild vs Colorado Avalanche 2nd Round series in the 2026 NHL Playoffs?: COL wins 4-2
KXNHLSERIESSCORE-26MINCOLR2-COL42
Cluster 6
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election
Cluster 7
Will Dusty Johnson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota
Will Dusty Johnson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Dakota?: Dusty Johnson
KXGOVSDNOMR-26-DJOH
Cluster 8
Will Jalen Johnson be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team
Will Jalen Johnson be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 2nd Team?: Jalen Johnson
KXNBA2NDTEAM-26-JJOH
What moved the line
- May 2Carolina Hurricanes -2.5 games↑38pp2→40¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Jalen Johnson↑21pp3→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 3CAR wins 4-0↑13pp16→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Carolina Hurricanes -2.5 games↓12pp40→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2COL wins 4-2↑11pp9→20¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.