SimpleFunctions
SportsWinner-take-all · 7 outcomes7 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 3 min agoCloses May 23, 2026 · 14d10pp · 23h

NHL Playoffs

Leader sits at 87% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

87%

Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche

runner-up 79¢leader 87¢

Outcomes

7

winner-take-all

Runner-up

79¢

Team to advance to Conferenc

Spread

8pp

contested

24h volume

$797

thin orderbook

Closes

May 23, 2026

14 days

Venue

Polymarket

7 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayTeam to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche: 87% (2 days, 2 points)Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche: 87% on 2026-05-08Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights: 58% (2 days, 2 points)Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights: 58% on 2026-05-08Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens: 35% (2 days, 2 points)Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens: 35% on 2026-05-08
Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche87¢Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights58¢Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens35¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents the aggregate view that the Carolina Hurricanes have a 97% chance of advancing to the Conference Finals in the current playoff round. The high probability reflects market confidence in their playoff position and performance relative to remaining opponents in their bracket. Key drivers include team health, recent performance trajectories, and matchup dynamics against potential second-round adversaries. The resolution hinges on the outcome of remaining playoff games in the Eastern Conference, which will occur over the next 1–3 weeks depending on series length and scheduling. Buffalo (67¢) and Colorado (88¢) are the next most-favored candidates, suggesting meaningful uncertainty remains despite Carolina's dominant pricing.

  • Carolina's current playoff seeding and remaining opponents relative to other Eastern Conference teams
  • Injury status of key players on Carolina and competing teams heading into each game
  • Head-to-head historical performance and recent regular-season matchup results between Carolina and potential second-round opponents
  • Buffalo's contract price (67¢) indicates material probability of upset; the gap between Buffalo and Carolina pricing suggests market assigns specific risk to that matchup
  • Volume concentration ($82 on Carolina vs. $435 on Buffalo) shows lower trading activity on the frontrunner, potentially reflecting reduced hedging or arbitrage activity

What moved the line

  • May 8Team to advance to Conference Finals: Anaheim Ducks25pp4166¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.