NHL Playoffs
Leader sits at 87% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
Team to advance to Conferenc
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$797
thin orderbook
Closes
May 23, 2026
14 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights
0xcb53eb…aafd
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens
0xc3d60d…6000
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Buffalo Sabres
0x17c169…2cad
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Anaheim Ducks
0xda518c…4c29
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Philadelphia Flyers
0x522290…e554
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Colorado Avalanche
0x6dc73a…6f9e
NHL Playoffs: Team to advance to Conference Finals: Minnesota Wild
0x40deef…e4b5
Analysis
This represents the aggregate view that the Carolina Hurricanes have a 97% chance of advancing to the Conference Finals in the current playoff round. The high probability reflects market confidence in their playoff position and performance relative to remaining opponents in their bracket. Key drivers include team health, recent performance trajectories, and matchup dynamics against potential second-round adversaries. The resolution hinges on the outcome of remaining playoff games in the Eastern Conference, which will occur over the next 1–3 weeks depending on series length and scheduling. Buffalo (67¢) and Colorado (88¢) are the next most-favored candidates, suggesting meaningful uncertainty remains despite Carolina's dominant pricing.
- ›Carolina's current playoff seeding and remaining opponents relative to other Eastern Conference teams
- ›Injury status of key players on Carolina and competing teams heading into each game
- ›Head-to-head historical performance and recent regular-season matchup results between Carolina and potential second-round opponents
- ›Buffalo's contract price (67¢) indicates material probability of upset; the gap between Buffalo and Carolina pricing suggests market assigns specific risk to that matchup
- ›Volume concentration ($82 on Carolina vs. $435 on Buffalo) shows lower trading activity on the frontrunner, potentially reflecting reduced hedging or arbitrage activity
What moved the line
- May 8Team to advance to Conference Finals: Anaheim Ducks↑25pp41→66¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.