Will Matthew McCarty shoot under 72.5 in Round 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
15 contracts
Top contract
47¢
$14K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “What will be Auston Matthews's next team” vs “Cadillac Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
What will be Auston Matthews's next team
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-TOR
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: St. Louis Blues
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-STL
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Anaheim Ducks
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-ANA
What will be Auston Matthews's next team?: Utah Mammoth
KXNEXTTEAMNHL-26AMAT-UTA
Cluster 2
Cadillac Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top
Cadillac Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 5?: Matthew McCarty
KXPGATOP5-CAC26-MMCC
Cadillac Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?: Matthew McCarty
KXPGATOP20-CAC26-MMCC
Cadillac Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?: Matthew McCarty
KXPGATOP10-CAC26-MMCC
Cluster 3
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 21, 2029?: Before Jan 21, 2029
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-29JAN21
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 2027
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-27JAN01
Will the United States acquire any territory not under its sovereignty (as of Issuance) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 2028
KXUSAEXPANDTERRITORY-28JAN01
Cluster 4
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Cluster 5
Will Matthew
What moved the line
- May 3Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?: Matthew McCarty↑35pp32→67¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?: Matthew McCarty↑20pp42→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?: Matthew McCarty↑18pp24→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Stays with Toronto Maple Leafs or retires↓14pp61→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Will Matthew McCarty finish top 5?: Matthew McCarty↑13pp24→37¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.