Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026
Before Aug 1, 2026 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 11 inside Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before.
Price history
4¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Aug 1, 2026
Rank
#9 of 11
Leader
Before May 1, 2027 51¢
Range
1¢-51¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Jun 7, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15
Family rank
#9 of 11
11 outcomes · Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Event family
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Before May 1, 2027 51¢
Current share
1%
Before May 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAY01
Before Apr 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27APR01
Before Mar 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27MAR01
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27JAN01
Before Feb 1, 2027
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-27FEB01
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26DEC01
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26NOV01
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26OCT01
Before Aug 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26AUG01
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26SEP01
Before Jul 1, 2026
kalshi · KXCOMPANYACTIONMERGER-27-26JUL01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.