Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.443 on Apr 30

30-day trend

Analysis

This market assesses whether NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU will cost more than $0.443 per compute hour on April 30, 2026—a metric combining hardware price and computational performance. The 27% probability reflects expectations that the RTX 5090 will likely offer better value than this threshold, either through competitive pricing or substantial performance gains. GPU pricing depends on NVIDIA's official launch price, real-world benchmark performance data, and competing products from AMD and Intel. The market will resolve once detailed specifications and pricing become public at product launch, allowing analysts to calculate actual compute-per-hour costs. Key factors include NVIDIA's historical pricing strategy for flagship chips, expected performance improvements over prior generations, competing GPU offerings at launch, and whether demand pressures lead to premium or competitive positioning.

• ›Official RTX 5090 launch price relative to prior flagship models (historical pricing patterns suggest $1,500-2,000 range)
• ›Measured compute performance vs. RTX 4090 in standard benchmarks (determines denominator in cost-per-compute calculation)
• ›Availability and pricing of competing high-end GPUs from AMD and Intel at time of launch
• ›Actual launch date and market availability (currently unconfirmed for 2026)
• ›Whether the $0.443 threshold was calculated using specific performance metrics or assumptions that may differ from real-world measurements

What moved the line

• May 2Tulsi Gabbard↓19pp54→35¢ · Kalshi
• May 3Tulsi Gabbard↑8pp35→43¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 26Tulsi Gabbard↓7pp56→49¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 30Nate Diaz↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
• Apr 27Tulsi Gabbard↑6pp49→55¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds