AI · KXTIME-26
AI is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXTIME-26.
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
If AI is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
AI
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Zohran Mamdani 35¢
Range
1¢-35¢
Family volume
$14K
Identifier
KXTIME-26-AI
Aug 27, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 1h ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$358
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTIME-26
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$14K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If AI is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTIME-26-AI
Event family
KXTIME-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Zohran Mamdani 35¢
Current share
0%
Zohran Mamdani
kalshi · KXTIME-26-ZOH
Pope Leo XIV
kalshi · KXTIME-26-POP
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTIME-26-DT
Elon Musk
kalshi · KXTIME-26-EM
Dario Amodei
kalshi · KXTIME-26-DAR
Benjamin Netanyahu
kalshi · KXTIME-26-BEN
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
kalshi · KXTIME-26-MOH
Sam Altman
kalshi · KXTIME-26-SA
AI
kalshi · KXTIME-26-AI
Péter Magyar
kalshi · KXTIME-26-PET
ChatGPT
kalshi · KXTIME-26-GPT
Jerome Powell
kalshi · KXTIME-26-JP
Bad Bunny
kalshi · KXTIME-26-BAD
Christina Koch
kalshi · KXTIME-26-CHR
Taylor Swift
kalshi · KXTIME-26-TS
Alysa Liu
kalshi · KXTIME-26-ALY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 7% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.