Leigh Leopards vs Huddersfield Giants Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 12 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 20% — a 17pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
9 contracts
Polymarket
20%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
17pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$34K
12 contracts
Top contract
59¢
$21K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 17pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (37¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants Winner
Cluster 2
Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Winner
Cluster 3
Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Winner
Cluster 4
Lotte Giants vs KT Wiz winner
Cluster 5
NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Carleigh Beriont
NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Carleigh Beriont
0x7d145b…e265
Cluster 6
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Cal Raleigh
MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Cal Raleigh
0x3da34b…877f
Cluster 7
MLB: AL Platinum Glove Winner: Cal Raleigh
MLB: AL Platinum Glove Winner: Cal Raleigh
0x5839f5…426e
Cluster 8
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants winner
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Yomiuri Giants winner?: Tokyo Yakult Swallows
KXNPBGAME-26MAY050100YAKYOM-YAK
What moved the line
- May 1Lucknow Super Giants↑14pp22→36¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 292026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Cal Raleigh↓13pp26→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Lotte Giants↑11pp19→30¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28Mumbai Indians↑10pp54→64¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Royal Challengers Bengaluru↑9pp52→61¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.