SC Internacional vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: SC Internacional (-2.5)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 27%, Polymarket at 36% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
1 contract
Polymarket
36%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
19 contracts
Closes
May 3, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 27¢ · Polymarket 36¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (27¢, 1 contract) and sell on Polymarket (36¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd8a7d5…4976
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-2.5)
0x4fe614…7662
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x8b09a6…fc9e
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x735342…ad9d
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x9ff78c…90df
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5)
0x43d406…e39b
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-1.5)
0x5fff26…3c5a
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xb4cd80…04dc
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC - More Markets: Fluminense FC (-2.5)
0xff496f…1114
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
Internacional vs Fluminense Winner
Internacional vs Fluminense Winner?: Fluminense
KXBRASILEIROGAME-26MAY03INTFLU-FLU
Cluster 6
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad (-2.5)
0x361624…8104
Cluster 7
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 8
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Fluminense↑6pp19→25¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Club Libertad (-2.5)↓5pp11→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↑3pp63→66¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.