Will the silver close price be above $57.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader sits at 97% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above $54.99
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
above $55.99
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$921
thin orderbook
Closes
May 29, 2026
24 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the silver close price be above
Will the silver close price be above 73.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $73.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T73.99
Will the silver close price be above 71.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $71.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T71.99
Will the silver close price be above 72.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $72.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T72.99
Will the silver close price be above 80.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $80.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T80.99
Will the silver close price be above 85.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $85.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T85.99
Will the silver close price be above 66.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $66.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T66.99
Will the silver close price be above 65.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $65.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T65.99
Will the silver close price be above 64.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $64.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T64.99
Will the silver close price be above 63.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $63.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T63.99
Will the silver close price be above 62.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $62.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T62.99
Will the silver close price be above 61.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $61.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T61.99
Will the silver close price be above 60.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $60.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T60.99
Will the silver close price be above 59.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $59.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T59.99
Will the silver close price be above 58.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $58.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T58.99
Will the silver close price be above 57.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $57.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T57.99
Will the silver close price be above 56.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $56.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T56.99
Will the silver close price be above 55.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $55.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T55.99
Will the silver close price be above 54.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $54.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T54.99
Will the silver close price be above 75.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $75.99
KXSILVERMON-26MAY2917-T75.99
Analysis
Traders assess an 89% probability that silver will close above $54.99 per troy ounce on May 29, 2026 at 5 PM EDT. This elevated confidence reflects recent price momentum, with the contract ladder showing traders expect silver to remain in the mid-to-upper $50s range. The market assigns meaningful but minority probability (~47%) to silver reaching $73.99, suggesting upside is possible but not the consensus case. Key drivers include macroeconomic conditions affecting industrial demand, broader precious metals market sentiment, and Federal Reserve policy direction through May. The resolution depends entirely on the spot price fixing at the specified time, with no intermediate data releases or scheduled events reshaping the outlook between now and late May. Traders are pricing in relative stability near current levels rather than significant directional moves in either direction.
- ›Contract prices decline steeply moving upward (89¢ at $54.99 vs. 47¢ at $73.99), indicating market consensus for a narrow range rather than extreme moves
- ›The 89% probability at $54.99 suggests traders expect silver to remain within striking distance of current prices through May 29
- ›Technical support and resistance levels, along with USD strength dynamics, will materially influence whether silver stays above mid-$50s thresholds
- ›Industrial demand forecasts for May 2026 and any shifts in Fed interest rate expectations could push markets toward either extreme of the contract ladder
- ›Historical silver volatility and correlation with equity markets represent tail-risk scenarios that could move the outcome away from the implied 89% baseline
What moved the line
- May 3above $72.99↑25pp23→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 3above $75.99↑25pp12→37¢ · Kalshi
- May 3above $56.99↑20pp61→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 3above $57.99↑20pp61→81¢ · Kalshi
- May 3above $73.99↑19pp25→44¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Ricky Stenhouse finish in the top 10 at NASCAR Jack Link's 500last 27% · 1d
- What will Oz Pearlman say during White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 14% · 1d
- What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Banking Committee Confirmation Hearinglast 14% · 1d
- What will Keir Starmer say during next Prime Minister's Questions (UK House of Commons)last 14% · 1d
- What will Jared Isaacman say during Senate Committee on Appropriations - NASA Budget hearinglast 14% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.