StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 78% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 42%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$200M
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
42¢
$400M
Spread
36pp
contested
24h volume
$81
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
243 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M
0x98a00a…36c9
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $3B
0xf411b5…2146
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x45a913…fe33
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $400M
0x3de44d…0800
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $2B
0x50e50c…6ede
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $1B
0x31f521…bff5
Analysis
This prediction reflects the likelihood that StandX will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $200 million within one day of launching. The market shows 78% confidence in this threshold being met, suggesting traders view a nine-figure valuation as highly probable but not certain. The valuation depends on several concrete variables: actual token supply at launch, initial trading demand and liquidity depth, and how the project's fundraising history and team reputation influence early market participants. The resolution occurs immediately after launch day when the FDV becomes calculable from public token data and price discovery. Broader context includes comparable recent token launches in the ecosystem and current macroeconomic conditions affecting crypto asset pricing. Secondary thresholds ($500M, $1B) show materially lower confidence, indicating the market sees a sharper drop-off in probability at higher valuations.
- ›Token supply at launch determines FDV calculation—lower supply mathematically inflates valuation at equivalent market cap
- ›Initial 24-hour trading volume and price discovery speed will establish the valuation baseline used for resolution
- ›Pre-launch community size, funding amount, and team track record influence institutional and retail demand on day one
- ›Broader crypto market conditions on launch date affect risk appetite and capital flowing into new token launches
- ›Competitor launches or negative news in the 48 hours before resolution could shift sentiment and trading activity
What moved the line
- Apr 28$2B↑21pp6→27¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28$3B↑18pp4→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29$3B↓18pp22→4¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28$1B↑14pp16→30¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28$400M↑10pp41→51¢ · Polymarket
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 min ago.