Swansea City AFC vs. Charlton Athletic FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 41%, Polymarket at 40%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
41%
8 contracts
Polymarket
40%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
1pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$602 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC” vs “Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Yokohama FC (-2.5)
0x63f37e…c527
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd68383…5708
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: Tochigi City FC (-1.5)
0x00d353…5196
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x22beac…2bae
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC: Tochigi City FC
0x203174…cc92
Cluster 2
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x07f7a0…ead8
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xe10577…46f4
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x69428f…bd63
Cluster 3
Will Zero Tenacity win
Will Zero Tenacity win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win map 2 in the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2MAP-26MAY031100Z10NGX-2-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win the REKONIX vs. Zero Tenacity Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY040500RNXZ10-Z10
Cluster 4
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC
Cluster 5
Will Nigma Galaxy win
Cluster 6
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Cluster 7
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x0e25b5…6674
Cluster 8
Will REKONIX win map 2 in the REKONIX vs. Zero Tenacity match
Will REKONIX win map 2 in the REKONIX vs. Zero Tenacity match?: REKONIX
KXDOTA2MAP-26MAY040500RNXZ10-2-RNX
What moved the line
- May 2Nigma Galaxy↑34pp37→71¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Both Teams to Score↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.