Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Between 10% and 19.99%
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
Between 20% and 29.99%
Spread
90pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99%
KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-14
Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 20% and 29.99%
KXTARIFFRATEEU-26JUL01-24
Analysis
This contract predicts a 68% probability that U.S. tariffs on European Union imports will fall between 20% and 29.99% on July 1, 2026. The high probability reflects market expectations that tariff rates will land in this middle band rather than lower or higher levels. The current reading is influenced by ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU, recent tariff announcements, and the administration's stated trade policy direction. The primary driver pushing probability up would be official signals or legislative action pointing toward this specific rate range; factors pulling it down would include statements suggesting rates will move substantially higher or lower. The key resolution event is July 1, 2026, when official tariff schedules take effect. Market participants are pricing in a moderate tariff scenario, though significant uncertainty remains about final negotiated rates and any last-minute policy changes before the deadline.
- ›Official U.S. tariff announcements or executive orders issued between now and June 30, 2026 that specify rate levels for EU imports
- ›Completion status and outcomes of ongoing U.S.-EU trade negotiations, particularly any binding agreements on tariff schedules
- ›Historical precedent: whether the administration has previously implemented tariffs in the 20-29.99% range versus higher or lower brackets
- ›Congressional action or legislative proposals that could override or modify executive tariff decisions
- ›Market concentration in this outcome: the 68% leader price suggests strong consensus, but runner-up at 7% indicates meaningful disagreement about alternative rate bands
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.