Will the tariff rate on the European Union imports be between 20% and 29.99% on Jul 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract predicts a 68% probability that U.S. tariffs on European Union imports will fall between 20% and 29.99% on July 1, 2026. The high probability reflects market expectations that tariff rates will land in this middle band rather than lower or higher levels. The current reading is influenced by ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and EU, recent tariff announcements, and the administration's stated trade policy direction. The primary driver pushing probability up would be official signals or legislative action pointing toward this specific rate range; factors pulling it down would include statements suggesting rates will move substantially higher or lower. The key resolution event is July 1, 2026, when official tariff schedules take effect. Market participants are pricing in a moderate tariff scenario, though significant uncertainty remains about final negotiated rates and any last-minute policy changes before the deadline.

• ›Official U.S. tariff announcements or executive orders issued between now and June 30, 2026 that specify rate levels for EU imports
• ›Completion status and outcomes of ongoing U.S.-EU trade negotiations, particularly any binding agreements on tariff schedules
• ›Historical precedent: whether the administration has previously implemented tariffs in the 20-29.99% range versus higher or lower brackets
• ›Congressional action or legislative proposals that could override or modify executive tariff decisions
• ›Market concentration in this outcome: the 68% leader price suggests strong consensus, but runner-up at 7% indicates meaningful disagreement about alternative rate bands

What moved the line

• May 1Between 10% and 19.99%↓5pp71→66¢ · Kalshi
• May 1Between 20% and 29.99%↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
• May 3Between 10% and 19.99%↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi
• May 1Below 10%↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi

How we compute these odds