SimpleFunctions
18 source contracts·Kalshi 18·refreshed just now·Closes Apr 1, 2027 · 298d

US Nominal GDP in 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 59% across 18 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

59%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

59%

18 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

18 contracts

Closes

Apr 1, 2027

298 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 57% (17 days, 17 points)Aggregate: 57% on 2026-06-01
Aggregate of 18 contracts · 17d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 18 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Australia Nominal GDP in 2026

9 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026

9 contracts$0

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for U.S. nominal GDP to reach a specific threshold in 2026. The 52% probability suggests roughly even odds, indicating significant uncertainty about whether nominal growth will exceed current market consensus levels. The main drivers are near-term inflation dynamics and real economic growth rates. Q2 2026 GDP data, which will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late May or early June, serves as the critical upcoming data point to resolve this uncertainty. The extremely low pricing on contracts betting for nominal growth above 2.5% in Q2 2026 (3¢) versus modest pricing on 1.5% growth (23¢) indicates markets view sustained higher nominal growth as unlikely in the near term, though full-year figures may differ from quarterly snapshots.

  • Q2 2026 BEA advance GDP report will provide the first official quarterly nominal growth data, directly informing whether thresholds are met
  • Core inflation readings throughout April and May will influence expectations for price growth component of nominal GDP
  • Federal Reserve policy stance and any signaled rate changes affect both inflation expectations and real growth prospects
  • Corporate earnings and labor market data in May-June will shape forecasts for nominal growth acceleration or deceleration
  • Comparisons to 2025 baseline nominal GDP levels will determine whether 2026 targets require acceleration versus continuation of existing trends

Recently closed in recession

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in recession.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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