US Nominal GDP in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 84% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
84%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$101
18 contracts
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
193 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
US Nominal GDP in 2026
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.2
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.2
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.2
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.0
Cluster 2
India Nominal GDP in 2026
India Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-IND26-4.2
Analysis
The 59% probability reflects market expectations that US nominal GDP will reach a specific threshold in 2026. This outcome depends primarily on two factors: the baseline economic growth rate and inflation levels throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and inflation trajectory will be critical—higher rates could slow growth, while persistent inflation could boost nominal figures even if real growth stagnates. The most significant resolution point comes in late 2026 when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases preliminary full-year GDP figures, typically in late January 2027. Until then, quarterly GDP reports and inflation data releases will provide incremental clarity. Current market pricing suggests moderate confidence in meeting the threshold, with substantial uncertainty remaining about the year's full economic performance.
- ›Real GDP growth rate for 2026 relative to 2025, which directly affects the numerator of nominal output
- ›Average inflation rate (measured by PCE or CPI) throughout 2026, as nominal GDP = real GDP × price level
- ›Federal Reserve monetary policy stance and interest rate changes, which influence both growth and inflation expectations
- ›Quarterly GDP reports released by BEA (January, April, July, October) that update year-to-date nominal figures
- ›Final nominal GDP figure released in late January 2027, which definitively settles the contract outcome
What moved the line
- Sep 18Above $32.0 trillion↑13pp68→81¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $4.2 trillion↓11pp14→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above $4.2 trillion↑11pp3→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above $32.0 trillion↓11pp81→70¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above $32.2 trillion↑6pp67→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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