US Nominal GDP in 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $29.0 trillion
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above $29.2 trillion
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
298 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
US Nominal GDP in 2026
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.2
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $32.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-32.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.2
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $31.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-31.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.2
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.0 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-30.0
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.8 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.8
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.6 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.6
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.4 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.4
US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.2 trillion
KXGDPNOM-US26-29.2
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations for U.S. nominal GDP to reach a specific threshold in 2026. The 52% probability suggests roughly even odds, indicating significant uncertainty about whether nominal growth will exceed current market consensus levels. The main drivers are near-term inflation dynamics and real economic growth rates. Q2 2026 GDP data, which will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late May or early June, serves as the critical upcoming data point to resolve this uncertainty. The extremely low pricing on contracts betting for nominal growth above 2.5% in Q2 2026 (3¢) versus modest pricing on 1.5% growth (23¢) indicates markets view sustained higher nominal growth as unlikely in the near term, though full-year figures may differ from quarterly snapshots.
- ›Q2 2026 BEA advance GDP report will provide the first official quarterly nominal growth data, directly informing whether thresholds are met
- ›Core inflation readings throughout April and May will influence expectations for price growth component of nominal GDP
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and any signaled rate changes affect both inflation expectations and real growth prospects
- ›Corporate earnings and labor market data in May-June will shape forecasts for nominal growth acceleration or deceleration
- ›Comparisons to 2025 baseline nominal GDP levels will determine whether 2026 targets require acceleration versus continuation of existing trends
Recently closed in recession
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- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 5d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 8d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 8d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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