Recession Prediction Market Odds
China GDP and US CPI expectations collapse as unemployment concerns shift to September
Active markets
12
Avg probability
74%
24h volume
$43K
Questions tracked
30
Key Moves
Expectations for a strong growth rebound in China have effectively vanished
Traders are now overwhelmingly convinced of a softening labor market by late Q3
The likelihood of an inflation re-acceleration in September is being priced out
Market sentiment suggests Chinese labor data may come in tighter than previously feared
Decreased expectation that trade policy will be a primary focus of upcoming corporate guidance
Key Markets
Specific odds in this topic
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Analysis
Market confidence in China's Q2 growth and high US inflation has plummeted, with odds for target GDP and CPI levels dropping over 80 points. Simultaneously, traders are repricing US labor risk, moving aggressively toward a higher unemployment floor for the September report.
What to watch: Monitor upcoming US labor market revisions to see if the shift toward higher September unemployment targets continues to accelerate.
Dispatches
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
Recession Probability Drops 7¢ as Iran Ceasefire Reduces Oil Shock Risk
The US recession by end-of-2026 market fell a significant 7¢ to 25¢, potentially driven by Iran ceasefire reducing fears of a prolonged oil supply shock that could tip the economy into recession. The Fed's no-cut stance remains the baseline at 39¢ for zero cuts in 2026, creating a macro backdrop where traders are reducing tail-risk hedges.
S&P Surges 3.1% But Recession Fears Persist — A Contradiction Worth Trading
The S&P 500 is up 3.1% with VIX down nearly 10%, yet prediction markets show 30% recession probability by end of 2026 and rising odds of near-zero GDP growth. Treasury yield markets are pricing in a flight to safety with 66% chance yields dip below 3.9%. This divergence between equity euphoria and macro bearishness creates opportunities on both sides.
Treasury Yield Crash Bets Surge — Flight to Safety Accelerating
The probability of 10-year Treasury yields hitting 3.9% before 2027 surged +14¢ to 67¢, the largest move in fixed income markets. Meanwhile, TLT is up nearly 1% today. With the Fed locked at no-change (97¢) for April and inflation fears above 4% at 61¢, traders are pricing in a stagflationary scenario where rates eventually plunge on recession fears.
Canadian Secession Referendum Probability Drops but Remains Elevated at 64¢
The probability of a Canadian province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027 dropped 8¢ but remains remarkably high at 64¢ with nearly $30K in volume. This reflects ongoing tensions around Alberta's autonomy push and potential Quebec responses to federal politics under the new Carney government. The Canada recession market at 41¢ adds economic pressure.
Also Tracking
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