Recession Prediction Market Odds

Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced

Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.

Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook

The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.

Recession Probability Drops 7¢ as Iran Ceasefire Reduces Oil Shock Risk

The US recession by end-of-2026 market fell a significant 7¢ to 25¢, potentially driven by Iran ceasefire reducing fears of a prolonged oil supply shock that could tip the economy into recession. The Fed's no-cut stance remains the baseline at 39¢ for zero cuts in 2026, creating a macro backdrop where traders are reducing tail-risk hedges.

S&P Surges 3.1% But Recession Fears Persist — A Contradiction Worth Trading

The S&P 500 is up 3.1% with VIX down nearly 10%, yet prediction markets show 30% recession probability by end of 2026 and rising odds of near-zero GDP growth. Treasury yield markets are pricing in a flight to safety with 66% chance yields dip below 3.9%. This divergence between equity euphoria and macro bearishness creates opportunities on both sides.

Treasury Yield Crash Bets Surge — Flight to Safety Accelerating

The probability of 10-year Treasury yields hitting 3.9% before 2027 surged +14¢ to 67¢, the largest move in fixed income markets. Meanwhile, TLT is up nearly 1% today. With the Fed locked at no-change (97¢) for April and inflation fears above 4% at 61¢, traders are pricing in a stagflationary scenario where rates eventually plunge on recession fears.

Canadian Secession Referendum Probability Drops but Remains Elevated at 64¢

The probability of a Canadian province scheduling a secession referendum before 2027 dropped 8¢ but remains remarkably high at 64¢ with nearly $30K in volume. This reflects ongoing tensions around Alberta's autonomy push and potential Quebec responses to federal politics under the new Carney government. The Canada recession market at 41¢ adds economic pressure.