Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
FC Ryūkyū
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 6, 2026
2 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. FC Ryūkyū
Analysis
This 47% probability indicates that market participants view Tegevajaro Miyazaki as slightly favored to win this matchup, with a meaningful 37% likelihood assigned to a draw outcome. The probability reflects expectations about relative team strength, recent form, and home-field advantage if applicable. Market participants are pricing in moderate goal-scoring potential, with both over/under 2.5 and 3.5 contracts near 54% and 36% respectively, suggesting expectations of a low-to-moderate scoring match. Liquidity is minimal across related contracts, with zero trading volume in the past 24 hours, indicating limited recent price discovery. The outcome will be determined by the match result itself—either a Tegevajaro Miyazaki win, a draw, or an FC Ryūkyū victory.
- ›Draw probability is priced at 37%, a substantial share, implying the matchup is viewed as competitive rather than lopsided
- ›Over/under 2.5 goals contract at 54% suggests expected total goals below 3, indicating expectations of defensive play or limited attacking threat
- ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all related contracts indicates shallow liquidity and potentially stale pricing
- ›Tegevajaro Miyazaki's 47% win probability is modest—only 10 percentage points ahead of the draw—suggesting no strong consensus on the likely outcome
- ›Both-teams-to-score probability at 54% reflects moderate confidence that both sides will breach the opposing defense
What moved the line
- May 3FC Ryūkyū↑3pp37→40¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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