Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 330ㅤ
Leader sits at 84% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 350ㅤ
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Above 355ㅤ
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$853
thin orderbook
Closes
May 12, 2026
9 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 3
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 365ㅤ?: Above 365ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T365
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 360ㅤ?: Above 360ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T360
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 355ㅤ?: Above 355ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T355
Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 350ㅤ?: Above 350ㅤ
KXUSGASCPI-26MAY12-T350
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that U.S. gasoline prices averaged above 350 cents per gallon in April 2026. The 84% probability suggests traders view above-350 prices as likely, with a notable gap to the 17% probability for above-360 and 5% for above-365, indicating uncertainty about how much higher prices could reach. Prices at this level would reflect continued global supply constraints or demand pressures. The resolution depends on official EIA data release, typically available mid-May, which will report April's actual city average. Key drivers include crude oil prices during April, refinery utilization rates, seasonal demand patterns, and any geopolitical or supply disruptions that occurred during the measurement period. The market's high confidence in exceeding 350 cents suggests either recent price momentum or expectations of sustained tightness, though the sharp probability drop at higher thresholds indicates skepticism about extreme levels.
- ›EIA will release April 2026 gasoline city average data in mid-May, resolving the contract with official government statistics
- ›The probability decline from 84% (above 350¢) to 17% (above 360¢) indicates traders expect the final average in the 350-360¢ range rather than significantly higher
- ›Crude oil prices and refinery capacity utilization during April 2026 are the primary factors determining whether the actual average exceeds 350¢
- ›Seasonal spring demand increases and any supply disruptions or geopolitical events during April would push averages higher, while demand weakness or increased supply would push lower
- ›The contract structure shows three tied price thresholds (350, 360, 365¢), with the winner-take-all format creating winner determined by which range the actual April average falls within
What moved the line
- Apr 29Above 355ㅤ↑30pp15→45¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Above 350ㅤ↑23pp47→70¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Above 350ㅤ↑8pp71→79¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Above 360ㅤ↑7pp8→15¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Above 360ㅤ↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.