VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 41% across 10 contracts. Kalshi at 42%, Polymarket at 39% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
7 contracts
Polymarket
39%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$206
10 contracts
Top contract
12¢
$121 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 42¢ · Polymarket 39¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (39¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (42¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will VfB eSports win
Will VfB eSports win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match?: VfB eSports
KXLOLGAME-26MAY061100G2NVFB-VFB
Will VfB eSports win map 1 in the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports match?: VfB eSports
KXLOLMAP-26MAY061100G2NVFB-1-VFB
Will VfB eSports win map 2 in the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports match?: VfB eSports
KXLOLMAP-26MAY061100G2NVFB-2-VFB
Cluster 2
Will G2 NORD win
Will G2 NORD win the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match?: G2 NORD
KXLOLGAME-26MAY061100G2NVFB-G2N
Will G2 NORD win map 2 in the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports match?: G2 NORD
KXLOLMAP-26MAY061100G2NVFB-2-G2N
Will G2 NORD win map 1 in the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports match?: G2 NORD
KXLOLMAP-26MAY061100G2NVFB-1-G2N
Cluster 3
Bundesliga: Team to qualify for UEFA
Cluster 4
Will over 2.5 maps be played in the G2 NORD vs. VfB eSports League of Legends match
Cluster 5
DFB-Pokal: Winner: VfB Stuttgart
DFB-Pokal: Winner: VfB Stuttgart
0x0b56bb…59b2
What moved the line
- Apr 28Winner: VfB Stuttgart↑8pp20→28¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29Winner: VfB Stuttgart↓7pp28→21¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30Winner: VfB Stuttgart↓6pp21→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Winner: VfB Stuttgart↑3pp15→18¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 14 min ago.