Vissel Kōbe vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 20 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
33%
20 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$15
20 contracts
Top contract
52¢
$15 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka” vs “Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xd2a242…44ad
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Shimizu S-Pulse
0x434537…a9ae
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Draw (Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka)
0xbd1972…c96f
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9ba576…5369
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xfb2380…fa88
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x699392…76a7
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)
0xbf161f…ec44
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: Shimizu S-Pulse (-2.5)
0xc33d1c…62ae
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: Cerezo Ōsaka
0x87c340…889a
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Cerezo Ōsaka - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x8f53ed…5fd7
Cluster 2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)
0x838893…f108
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe)
0x0324af…007a
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x46afc0…7592
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)
0x0dd98d…b64e
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe: Vissel Kōbe
0xdb1e98…9016
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0xdfd081…ff31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0xa5be96…39c2
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x840caa…6f30
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xced570…3f21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)
0x5cd99b…877d
What moved the line
- May 3Vissel Kōbe (-2.5)↑15pp11→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)↑9pp9→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Cerezo Ōsaka (-2.5)↑3pp28→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Vissel Kōbe↓3pp33→30¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.