Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?: Mitch McConnell
KXVOTERECNCS-MAY26-MMCC
Cluster 2
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?: Thom Tillis
KXVOTERECNCS-MAY26-TTIL
Cluster 3
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?: Rand Paul
KXVOTERECNCS-MAY26-RPAU
Cluster 4
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?: John Fetterman
KXVOTERECNCS-MAY26-JFET
Cluster 5
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?: Lisa Murkowski
KXVOTERECNCS-MAY26-LMUR
Cluster 6
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill
Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?: Susan Collins
KXVOTERECNCS-MAY26-SCOL
What moved the line
- May 8Thom Tillis↑6pp83→89¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Mitch McConnell↑4pp81→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.