What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debate
Leader sits at 97% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Million
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Clue
Spread
45pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
May 22, 2026
17 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Million
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY07-MILL
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Drama
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY07-DRAM
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Blood / Bloody
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY07-BLOO
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Clue
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY07-CLUE
What will any participating contestant say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 11?: Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26MAY07-BETR
What moved the line
- May 3Million↑12pp85→97¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Drama↑3pp36→39¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Clue↑3pp36→39¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.