Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000
Leader sits at 77% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 186K
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
Above 260K
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 410000?: Above 410K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-HIGOV-410000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 430000?: Above 430K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-HIGOV-430000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 03 House General Election be above 200000?: Above 200K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AL03-200000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Arkansas 02 House General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AR02-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 48 House General Election be above 200000?: Above 200K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA48-200000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 48 House General Election be above 186000?: Above 186K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA48-186000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Montana 02 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MT02-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon 06 House General Election be above 340000?: Above 340K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OR06-340000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?: Above 12M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12000000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000?: Above 10.9M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-10900000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-310000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Governor General Election be above 4600000?: Above 4.6M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MIGOV-4600000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama Governor General Election be above 1630000?: Above 1.63M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-ALGOV-1630000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Governor General Election be above 194000?: Above 194K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYGOV-194000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYSEN-320000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio 02 House General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OH02-260000
What moved the line
- May 7Above 10.9M↑31pp29→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Above 260K↑25pp48→73¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 410K↑22pp40→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 1.63M↑18pp5→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 270K↑17pp11→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.