Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000
Leader sits at 86% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 68%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 270K
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
68¢
Above 280K
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$411
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
498 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 820000?: Above 820K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MESEN-820000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Washington 09 House General Election be above 350000?: Above 350K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WA09-350000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?: Above 12M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12000000
Will the total vote count for all participants in New Mexico Governor General Election be above 710000?: Above 710K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-NMGOV-710000
Will the total vote count for all participants in New Hampshire Governor General Election be above 620000?: Above 620K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-NHGOV-620000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-260000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-310000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-260000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-320000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-310000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-280000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Colorado Governor General Election be above 2500000?: Above 2.5M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-COGOV-2500000
Analysis
This contract asks whether total votes cast in Wisconsin's 2026 gubernatorial race will exceed 3 million. The 81% probability reflects expectation that turnout will meet or exceed this threshold. Key factors include Wisconsin's historical gubernatorial turnout patterns—the 2022 gubernatorial election drew approximately 2.7 million votes—and whether 2026 generates comparable or higher participation. Midterm cycles typically see lower turnout than presidential years, but competitive races and voter mobilization efforts can offset this trend. The outcome resolves on official election results reported by Wisconsin election authorities following the November 2026 general election. Uncertainty primarily stems from whether specific campaign dynamics, candidate appeal, and voter enthusiasm will drive incremental increases above 2022 levels or result in decline from the baseline.
- ›Wisconsin's 2022 gubernatorial election recorded approximately 2.7 million total votes, establishing recent baseline turnout
- ›Midterm gubernatorial elections typically experience 10-20% lower turnout than presidential-year gubernatorial races in the same state
- ›The 3 million vote threshold represents roughly 8-12% growth over 2022 levels, requiring either population increases or significantly higher participation rates
- ›Competitive statewide races and coordinated turnout efforts can influence whether voters participate at presidential-year or midterm baseline levels
- ›Election results become official after Wisconsin election authorities certify the November 2026 general election results
What moved the line
- Jun 17Above 820K↑16pp11→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Above 12M↓4pp66→62¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Above 820K↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01last 97% · 0d
- Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02last 29% · 3d
- Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Mainelast 83% · 3d
- Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Mainelast 57% · 3d
- Will the margin of victory for Andy Burnham in the 2026 Makerfield by-election be between 3% and 6%last 97% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Priced at 78¢ to Win House in 2026, Heavy Primary Action
Democratic control of the House is priced at 78¢ (vs 21¢ Republican), with heavy primary volume in New York congressional races. The New York-10 Democratic primary is a standout, with Brad Lander at 98¢.
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for House, Senate a Toss-up
Prediction markets signal a likely Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives (78¢) in the 2026 midterms, while the Senate race is too close to call, with Republicans slightly favored (57¢). Key state-level races in California, Texas, and Maine are providing additional trading opportunities.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.