Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000
Leader sits at 70% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 11.5M
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
Above 180K
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$9K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
406 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants
Will the total vote count for all participants in Florida 12 House General Election be above 370000?: Above 370K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-FL12-370000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Florida 23 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-FL23-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 18 House General Election be above 129000?: Above 129K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA18-129000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Arizona 03 House General Election be above 180000?: Above 180K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AZ03-180000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas 09 House General Election be above 182000?: Above 182K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TX09-182000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 5600000?: Above 5.60M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MISEN-5600000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin 02 House General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WI02-320000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Massachusetts 05 House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MA05-280000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 48 House General Election be above 210000?: Above 210K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA48-210000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 42 House General Election be above 152000?: Above 152K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA42-152000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 19 House General Election be above 210000?: Above 210K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA19-210000
Will the total vote count for all participants in New York Governor General Election be above 5800000?: Above 5.8M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-NYGOV-5800000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 11500000?: Above 11.5M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-11500000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin 02 House General Election be above 360000?: Above 360K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WI02-360000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Iowa 04 House General Election be above 360000?: Above 360K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-IA04-360000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 37 House General Election be above 126000?: Above 126K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA37-126000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 19 House General Election be above 220000?: Above 220K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA19-220000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 14 House General Election be above 180000?: Above 180K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA14-180000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 12 House General Election be above 200000?: Above 200K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA12-200000
Will the total vote count for all participants in South Carolina Senate General Election be above 1760000?: Above 1.76M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-SCSEN-1760000
Analysis
This contract asks whether total votes cast in Wisconsin's 2026 gubernatorial race will exceed 3 million. The 81% probability reflects expectation that turnout will meet or exceed this threshold. Key factors include Wisconsin's historical gubernatorial turnout patterns—the 2022 gubernatorial election drew approximately 2.7 million votes—and whether 2026 generates comparable or higher participation. Midterm cycles typically see lower turnout than presidential years, but competitive races and voter mobilization efforts can offset this trend. The outcome resolves on official election results reported by Wisconsin election authorities following the November 2026 general election. Uncertainty primarily stems from whether specific campaign dynamics, candidate appeal, and voter enthusiasm will drive incremental increases above 2022 levels or result in decline from the baseline.
- ›Wisconsin's 2022 gubernatorial election recorded approximately 2.7 million total votes, establishing recent baseline turnout
- ›Midterm gubernatorial elections typically experience 10-20% lower turnout than presidential-year gubernatorial races in the same state
- ›The 3 million vote threshold represents roughly 8-12% growth over 2022 levels, requiring either population increases or significantly higher participation rates
- ›Competitive statewide races and coordinated turnout efforts can influence whether voters participate at presidential-year or midterm baseline levels
- ›Election results become official after Wisconsin election authorities certify the November 2026 general election results
What moved the line
- Sep 18Above 5.8M↓37pp42→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 5.8M↑9pp33→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 200K↓9pp17→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 320K↑7pp47→54¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 180K↓7pp62→55¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 4d
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 4d
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 6d
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Midterm 2026 Markets Surge with Over 300 Contracts and $4M+ Volume
The 2026 midterm cycle is heating up with high-volume markets on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. The current probabilities suggest a competitive environment, with key swing states like Texas, Iowa, and Michigan drawing the most action.
Democrats heavily favored to flip the House; Texas Senate race a key upset risk
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority. Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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