SimpleFunctions
PoliticsWinner-take-all · 18 outcomes18 contractsKalshirefreshed 3 min agoCloses Nov 3, 2027 · 543d

Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000

Leader sits at 77% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

77%

Above 186K

runner-up 73¢leader 77¢

Outcomes

18

winner-take-all

Runner-up

73¢

Above 260K

Spread

4pp

contested

24h volume

$3K

modest

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

543 days

Venue

Kalshi

18 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove 186K: 36% on 2026-05-07Above 260K: 73% (2 days, 2 points)Above 260K: 73% on 2026-05-08Above 200K: 22% on 2026-05-07
Above 186K36¢Above 260K73¢Above 200K22¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the total vote count for all participants

18 contracts$3K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 410000?: Above 410K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-HIGOV-410000

62¢+22pp$400K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 430000?: Above 430K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-HIGOV-430000

31¢+10pp$400K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama 03 House General Election be above 200000?: Above 200K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AL03-200000

59¢$300K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Arkansas 02 House General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AR02-270000

47¢$300K

Will the total vote count for all participants in California 48 House General Election be above 200000?: Above 200K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA48-200000

63¢$300K

Will the total vote count for all participants in California 48 House General Election be above 186000?: Above 186K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA48-186000

77¢$300K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Montana 02 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MT02-300000

16¢$300K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon 06 House General Election be above 340000?: Above 340K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OR06-340000

27¢$300K

Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?: Above 12M

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12000000

19¢+3pp$243K

Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000?: Above 10.9M

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-10900000

61¢+31pp$159K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-310000

12¢+10pp$150K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-300000

16¢+9pp$100K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-270000

33¢+17pp$75K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Governor General Election be above 4600000?: Above 4.6M

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MIGOV-4600000

39¢+5pp$2K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Alabama Governor General Election be above 1630000?: Above 1.63M

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-ALGOV-1630000

16¢+18pp$1K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Governor General Election be above 194000?: Above 194K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYGOV-194000

40¢+15pp$0K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYSEN-320000

5¢$0K

Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio 02 House General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K

KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OH02-260000

73¢+25pp$0K

What moved the line

  • May 7Above 10.9M31pp2960¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Above 260K25pp4873¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Above 410K22pp4062¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Above 1.63M18pp523¢ · Kalshi
  • May 7Above 270K17pp1128¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in election 2026.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.