Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000
Leader sits at 77% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 75%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 10.9M
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
75¢
Above 240K
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$955
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
448 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon 01 House General Election be above 400000?: Above 400K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OR01-400000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Oregon 01 House General Election be above 420000?: Above 420K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OR01-420000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 04 House General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA04-240000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 11 House General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA11-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 10600000?: Above 10.60M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TXSEN-10600000
Will the total vote count for all participants in New York Governor General Election be above 6100000?: Above 6.1M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-NYGOV-6100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 11 House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA11-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California 11 House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CA11-280000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 11500000?: Above 11.5M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-11500000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Minnesota Senate General Election be above 2600000?: Above 2.60M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MNSEN-2600000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12600000?: Above 12.6M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-12600000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin 07 House General Election be above 390000?: Above 390K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WI07-390000
Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 10900000?: Above 10.9M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-CAGOV-10900000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 250000?: Above 250K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYSEN-250000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 240000?: Above 240K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYSEN-240000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 230000?: Above 230K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYSEN-230000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Wyoming Senate General Election be above 220000?: Above 220K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-WYSEN-220000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 700000?: Above 700K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MESEN-700000
Analysis
This contract asks whether total votes cast in Wisconsin's 2026 gubernatorial race will exceed 3 million. The 81% probability reflects expectation that turnout will meet or exceed this threshold. Key factors include Wisconsin's historical gubernatorial turnout patterns—the 2022 gubernatorial election drew approximately 2.7 million votes—and whether 2026 generates comparable or higher participation. Midterm cycles typically see lower turnout than presidential years, but competitive races and voter mobilization efforts can offset this trend. The outcome resolves on official election results reported by Wisconsin election authorities following the November 2026 general election. Uncertainty primarily stems from whether specific campaign dynamics, candidate appeal, and voter enthusiasm will drive incremental increases above 2022 levels or result in decline from the baseline.
- ›Wisconsin's 2022 gubernatorial election recorded approximately 2.7 million total votes, establishing recent baseline turnout
- ›Midterm gubernatorial elections typically experience 10-20% lower turnout than presidential-year gubernatorial races in the same state
- ›The 3 million vote threshold represents roughly 8-12% growth over 2022 levels, requiring either population increases or significantly higher participation rates
- ›Competitive statewide races and coordinated turnout efforts can influence whether voters participate at presidential-year or midterm baseline levels
- ›Election results become official after Wisconsin election authorities certify the November 2026 general election results
What moved the line
- Aug 12Above 390K↓44pp67→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Above 10.60M↓14pp26→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above 290K↑12pp10→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 12Above 700K↑10pp40→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 700K↓9pp56→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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