Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000
Leader sits at 86% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 270K
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
Above 4.10M
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$431
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
451 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total vote count for all participants
Will the total vote count for all participants in Maine Senate General Election be above 700000?: Above 700K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MESEN-700000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Iowa Governor General Election be above 1220000?: Above 1.22M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-IAGOV-1220000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Georgia Senate General Election be above 4100000?: Above 4.10M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-GASEN-4100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-260000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Texas Senate General Election be above 11200000?: Above 11.20M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-TXSEN-11200000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Michigan Senate General Election be above 4700000?: Above 4.70M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-MISEN-4700000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Hawaii Governor General Election be above 410000?: Above 410K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-HIGOV-410000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Ohio Senate General Election be above 4100000?: Above 4.10M
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-OHSEN-4100000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKSEN-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-310000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 300000?: Above 300K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-300000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-270000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKGOV-260000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 320000?: Above 320K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-320000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 310000?: Above 310K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-310000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-290000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-280000
Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K
KXMIDTERMVOTETURN-AKAL-270000
Analysis
This contract asks whether total votes cast in Wisconsin's 2026 gubernatorial race will exceed 3 million. The 81% probability reflects expectation that turnout will meet or exceed this threshold. Key factors include Wisconsin's historical gubernatorial turnout patterns—the 2022 gubernatorial election drew approximately 2.7 million votes—and whether 2026 generates comparable or higher participation. Midterm cycles typically see lower turnout than presidential years, but competitive races and voter mobilization efforts can offset this trend. The outcome resolves on official election results reported by Wisconsin election authorities following the November 2026 general election. Uncertainty primarily stems from whether specific campaign dynamics, candidate appeal, and voter enthusiasm will drive incremental increases above 2022 levels or result in decline from the baseline.
- ›Wisconsin's 2022 gubernatorial election recorded approximately 2.7 million total votes, establishing recent baseline turnout
- ›Midterm gubernatorial elections typically experience 10-20% lower turnout than presidential-year gubernatorial races in the same state
- ›The 3 million vote threshold represents roughly 8-12% growth over 2022 levels, requiring either population increases or significantly higher participation rates
- ›Competitive statewide races and coordinated turnout efforts can influence whether voters participate at presidential-year or midterm baseline levels
- ›Election results become official after Wisconsin election authorities certify the November 2026 general election results
What moved the line
- Aug 5Above 4.70M↑14pp14→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 700K↓9pp56→47¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Above 260K↑3pp66→69¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Above 11.20M↓3pp16→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 4.70M↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026last 94% · 0d
- Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recesslast 7% · 0d
- Who will win the 2026 Los Angeles City Council District 1 electionlast 87% · 0d
- Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primarylast 42% · 1d
- Will Kaela Berg be the Democratic (DFL) nominee for MN-2last 31% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
Related reading
Election 2026 markets see massive volume on long-shot presidential nominee
Abdul El-Sayed as 2028 Democratic nominee has 1.3 million volume at 1¢ – an extreme outlier. Meanwhile, Democratic House control trades at 84¢ with 755k volume. Traders should monitor these for sentiment shifts as midterms approach.
Election 2026 Markets Active; Florida Primary and Senate Control Key
Election 2026 markets dominate the prediction landscape. Florida Governor primary has over 2 million combined volume. Senate control is tight (R 53¢), House leans Democratic (83¢). South Carolina special primary sees tight three-way race.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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