Will Sue Altman be the Democratic nominee for NJ-12
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 93% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
93%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$400
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
508 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Rosie Pino be the Republican nominee for NJ-09
Will Rosie Pino be the Republican nominee for NJ-09?: Rosie Pino
KXNJPRIMARY-09R26-RPIN
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Sue Altman wins the Democratic primary for New Jersey's 12th congressional district. A 37% probability reflects moderate confidence but significant uncertainty about her candidacy's viability. The outcome will depend on primary field composition, her political profile and fundraising capacity relative to competitors, and local Democratic voting patterns. Key factors include whether she enters the race, total candidate competition, her performance in early polling or endorsements, and turnout dynamics in the district. The primary election date would be the decisive moment for resolution.
- ›Sue Altman's official announcement of candidacy or confirmation she is running for NJ-12
- ›Number and strength of competing Democratic candidates in the primary field
- ›Polling results showing support levels among likely Democratic primary voters in NJ-12
- ›Endorsements from county Democratic organizations or other established party figures
- ›Early fundraising totals and ability to build campaign infrastructure
What moved the line
- Jun 8Rosie Pino↓94pp97→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Rosie Pino↑31pp9→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 9Rosie Pino↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victorylast 85% · 1d
- Who will advance from the 2026 CA-04 primarylast 97% · 2d
- Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%last 97% · 2d
- Will Rom Reddy qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primarylast 51% · 3d
- Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14last 6% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.