Washington Spirit vs. Racing Louisville FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 19 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
36%
19 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
19 contracts
Top contract
3¢
$306 · Polymarket
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets” vs “FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xc91f8e…fc4a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x5c8e41…b6f1
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x32d4ab…3c4b
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-2.5)
0x15e436…84a3
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Racing Club (-1.5)
0xc988a4…7704
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
0xd6abb8…2411
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x9bdf90…2be9
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
0x50a3e5…ff1a
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0xd61678…cc29
Cluster 2
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Molde FK - More Markets: FK Bodø/Glimt
Cluster 3
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC - More Markets: O/U
Cluster 5
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad
CA Rosario Central vs. Club Libertad - More Markets: Club Libertad (-2.5)
0x361624…8104
Cluster 6
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC - More Markets: Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)
0xeacd4b…9c9e
Cluster 7
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x92fa6c…9a3a
Cluster 8
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x5d58f6…ee3d
What moved the line
- May 2O/U 2.5↓12pp53→41¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓6pp12→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Club Libertad (-2.5)↓5pp11→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Liaoning Tieren FC (-2.5)↓5pp17→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 2O/U 2.5↑3pp63→66¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 41 min ago.