When will the DHS shutdown end
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$140K
16 contracts
Top contract
15¢
$43K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will the rate of CPI inflation be above” vs “Will Sydney Sweeney attend The Met Gala 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the rate of CPI inflation be above
Cluster 2
Will Sydney Sweeney attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Sydney Sweeney attend The Met Gala 2026?: Sydney Sweeney
KXMETGALA-26-SYD
Cluster 3
Will Chappell Roan attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Chappell Roan attend The Met Gala 2026?: Chappell Roan
KXMETGALA-CHA
Cluster 4
Will Zendaya attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Zendaya attend The Met Gala 2026?: Zendaya
KXMETGALA-ZEN
Cluster 5
Will Jacob Elordi attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Jacob Elordi attend The Met Gala 2026?: Jacob Elordi
KXMETGALA-JAC
Cluster 6
Will the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment be between 3% and 6%
Cluster 7
Will Timothée Chalamet attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Timothée Chalamet attend The Met Gala 2026?: Timothée Chalamet
KXMETGALA-TIM
Cluster 8
Will G2 Esports win the Natus Vincere vs. G2 Esports League of Legends match
Cluster 9
Will Meryl Streep attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Meryl Streep attend The Met Gala 2026?: Meryl Streep
KXMETGALA-26-MER
Cluster 10
Will Lady Gaga attend The Met Gala 2026
Will Lady Gaga attend The Met Gala 2026?: Lady Gaga
KXMETGALA-26-LAD
Cluster 11
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Rory McIlroy
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-RMCI
Cluster 12
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the PGA Championship?: Scottie Scheffler
KXPGAR1LEAD-PGC26-SSCH
Cluster 13
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship
Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 3 in the PGA Championship?: Cameron Young
KXPGAR3LEAD-PGC26-CAME
Cluster 14
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call
What will McDonald's Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Dividend
KXEARNINGSMENTIONMCD-26MAY07-DIVI
Cluster 15
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08
Will Robert Menendez Jr. be the Democratic nominee for NJ-08?: Robert Menendez Jr.
KXNJPRIMARY-08D26-RMEN
What moved the line
- Apr 26Robert Menendez Jr.↑52pp21→73¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Zendaya↓36pp40→4¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Zendaya↓22pp72→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Chappell Roan↑21pp22→43¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 27Meryl Streep↓21pp62→41¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.