Which party wins control of the most London borough councils
Leader sits at 93% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Labour
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Green
Spread
85pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$17K
liquid
Closes
May 7, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which party wins control of the most London borough councils
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the Labour Party will control more London borough councils than other parties following local elections. The 83% assessment reflects Labour's strong polling position and historical strength in London's urban areas, though it could shift based on local campaign dynamics and voter turnout patterns. The main drivers of this forecast are current voting intention surveys, local economic conditions, and historically consistent patterns of party performance across London's 32 boroughs. The primary resolution event is the May 2026 local election day, when all borough council seats will be contested and actual results will determine control. Shifts toward Conservative or Lib Dem gains in specific boroughs could lower Labour's probability, while continued strong performance in polls would reinforce it.
- ›Current national polling data showing Labour leads Conservatives by approximately 15-20 percentage points
- ›Borough-level demographic composition and historical voting patterns, with Labour traditionally strongest in inner London and urban areas
- ›Turnout rates in local elections relative to general elections, which significantly affect result distributions
- ›Performance of third parties (Liberal Democrats, Greens) in specific boroughs that could fragment non-Labour votes
- ›Local issues and borough-specific campaigns that may diverge from national political trends
What moved the line
- May 6Labour↑7pp84→91¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Green↓5pp14→9¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Green↑5pp9→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Labour↓5pp91→86¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Green↑4pp11→15¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (93% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.